- January 9, 2016 at 9:13 am #24809
Perfect Play — Cincinnati Bengals
This game, win or lose, is more about how Pittsburgh will win and cover on the road with Big Ben directing his team. Many think his efforts result in an automatic win for the Steelers. Let’s take a look. Ben Roethlidberger throws the ball down field often and far. That’s his foray. The problem is that Roethlisberger doesn’t throw as many touchdowns as one may think he would but plenty of interceptions instead. It could be his age, offensive line or certain defenses used. Only Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown more interceptions on deep passes than Roethlisberger. He has an issue forcing the ball downfield.
Ben has played Cincinnati twice this year and his results in those games shows that he completed 5 out 18 of his deep pass attempts, good for a completion percentage of 27.8%, for a grand total of 105 yards. He also has blanked on any TD passes. Some ask why. The Bengals are one of the best teams in the league at stopping deep passes. Teams have attempted 110 deep throws completing only 34.5% of those attempts. Additionally, they have 15 interceptions, which is best in the NFL. A J McCarron has completed 66% of his passes and does not drop too much in talent in a comparison to injured Andy Dalton. The Bengals defense give Marvin Lewis his best chance to put the 0-6 playoff record behind him. Playoff games are about solid defenses with most everything being equal.
Pinnacle — Houston Texans
**Wild Card Playoff Game of Year**
Brian Hoyer has the Texans offense balanced and playing better than their competition. Houston may be playing as well as any NFL defense at this time. DeAndre Hopkins will be the difference maker in this game with some highlights catch. The crowd and special teams will make a difference. The frenzy of the home crowd knows how to propel the defensive effort to the next dimension. JJ Watt and Johnathan Joseph should be the beneficiary to this added motivation. The Chiefs enter this game with a 10 game winning streak. This occurrence has happened 14 times in history with just 6 teams coming out on top. Additionally, there is revenge. The Chiefs won in week one and it’s difficult to win twice in the same season against the same team out of division. Again, the Texans have balance at running backs with Blue and Grimes. Defense wins playoff game and no team is doing as much as the Texans are on defense. Houston will win this game outright. The scoring could be limited and field goals and the points will be the difference maker.January 9, 2016 at 9:13 am #24810
5 units – Chiefs
5 units – BengalsJanuary 9, 2016 at 10:25 am #24819
BIG AL MCMORDIE
5* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR!
Game Date/Time: 1/9/16 4:35 pm
Our Selection: Chiefs/Texans ‘over’ Line: 40
Analysis: At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the ‘over’ in the Kansas City/Houston game.
This selection is largely technical, in nature, as it falls into Totals systems of mine that are 110-72, 46-14, 35-6, 60-30, and 84-46. Let’s take a look at our 84-46 angle. What we want to do is play on the ‘over’ in Playoff games where the line is less than 44 points, provided the underdog is getting 3+ points, and it averages no more than 23.5 ppg. In this game, the underdog Houston Texans are averaging barely over 21 ppg (21.18), and rank dead last among Playoff teams in scoring. The knee-jerk reaction might be to think that this game will be low-scoring, given Houston’s poor offensive capabilities. But I look for a relatively high-scoring game. Moreover, the Texans have gone ‘over’ the total in 22 of 31 games as home underdogs, while the Chiefs have gone ‘over’ the total in 15 of their last 20 as road favorites, including the match-up between these two teams earlier this season, won by the Chiefs, 27-20. Take the ‘over.’
100% PERFECT NFL ELITE INFO WINNER!
Game Date/Time: 1/9/16 4:35 pm
Our Selection: Chiefs
Opponent: Texans Line: -3
Analysis: At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston.
The Texans come into this game off 3 SU/ATS wins. But those three wins came against Houston’s AFC South Division rivals (Indy, Jacksonville, Tennessee) — not exactly murderer’s row. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are playing as well as any team in football. KC’s won 10 straight games, and has won those games by an average of 15 ppg. For the same time period, Houston’s won by an average of 5.3 ppg. KC falls into 37-9 and 117-56 ATS Playoff systems of mine, based on its and Houston’s scoring margins, as well as a 39-18 ATS System. That 39-18 angle goes against teams that held their last two foes in the regular season to 14 points or less. Finally, The Chiefs have covered 7 straight on the road when priced from -3 to -6.5 points. Lay it!
5* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR!
Game Date/Time: 1/9/16 8:15 pm
Our Selection: Bengals
Opponent: Steelers Line: +3
Analysis: At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals plus the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last week, the Bengals won, 24-16, as a 9.5-point favorite vs. Baltimore, while the Steelers bested the Browns, in Cleveland, 28-12. The Bengals will start AJ McCarron on Saturday while Andy Dalton continues to recover from a fractured thumb sustained in the last meeting between these two teams. But the fact that McCarron will be the starter is not a huge deal for me, especially considering Dalton’s history in the Playoffs. With the Bengals installed as a home underdog, I’m all over them in this game. First, Cincy falls into my very best Playoff systems, with records of 28-0, 53-10, 75-15 and 32-5 ATS since 1980. Those angles are a bit different, but a common thread which runs through them relates to Cincinnati’s defense, which rates much better than Pittsburgh’s defense (17.43 compared to 19.93). But it’s not just that we have the better defensive team getting points. We also have the Steelers playing their third straight road game. That’s NEVER a good situation. Indeed, over the past 36 years, teams playing their 3rd straight road game are 107-141-1 ATS, including 19-34-1 ATS in the Playoffs. But that’s not the best part. If our road-weary traveler owns a win percentage less than .666, then our 34-19 stat zooms to 25-5 ATS since 1980, including 0-8 ATS off a double-digit win. Finally, the Bengals play with revenge from their 33-20 loss to Pittsburgh last month. And NFL teams are a perfect 10-0 ATS in the Playoffs vs. division rivals if they’re off a pointspread defeat, and also play with revenge from a loss in which they gave up 28+ points.January 9, 2016 at 10:41 am #24823
Pittsburgh Steelers -146 over Cincinnati Bengals
(System Record: 45-5, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 45-50-2
Houston Texans +135 over Kansas City ChiefsJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:35 am #24826
8 Unit Play. #105 Take Pittsburgh Steelers-2.5
over Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday 8:15 pm CBS)
Both teams have key players on offense that are questionable, but regardless I see the Steelers rolling in this game. Pittsburgh has won 13 of their last 15 games in Cincinnati, and expect that to hold true again on Saturday. Cincinnati has had no playoff success under Marvin Lewis, and if things to do go their way early expect the sideline to become tight and panic will set it. Big Ben put up monster numbers this season passing the football, and Pittsburgh just beat Cincinnati a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 playoff games. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.
Best of Luck – Doc’s SportsJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:38 am #24830
Houston–Kansas City – UNDER 40
Houston +3 KC
Cincinnati +2 1/2 PittsburghJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:43 am #24834
3* NFL ‘Wildcard Playoffs’ *Best Bet*
Kansas City / Houston
2** TOTALS PLAY Winner!
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
UNDER 46January 9, 2016 at 11:46 am #24836
Under – Kansas City vs Houston
Pittsburgh SteelersJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:47 am #24837
2000♦ Cincinnati BengalsJanuary 9, 2016 at 11:47 am #24838
100 DIME – Cincinnati Bengals +3January 9, 2016 at 11:49 am #24839
TEXANS +10 / UNDER 47.5January 9, 2016 at 12:05 pm #24841
Under – Steelers vs BengalsJanuary 9, 2016 at 12:05 pm #24842
Cincinnati BengalsJanuary 9, 2016 at 12:06 pm #24843
KC ChiefsJanuary 9, 2016 at 12:08 pm #24846
7-Unit -Play Houston Texans+3.5
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