April 15, 2016 at 11:48 am #40549
Betting odds for NFL Week 1 have been released
Well, the suspense (and internet leaks) are over. The National Football League has officially released their schedule for the 2016 regular season, which means the NFL betting season is officially open.
Westgate LV Superbook in Las Vegas has put out their opening lines for Week 1 and here they are:
NFL Week 1 Betting Odds:
Thursday, September 8, 2016
Carolina Panthers 43.5
Denver Broncos -3
Sunday, September 11, 2016
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48
Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Minnesota Vikings -3
Tennessee Titans 42.5
Cleveland Browns 46
Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
Cincinnati Bengals PK
New York Jets 43.5
Oakland Raiders 51
New Orleans Saints -1.5
San Diego Chargers 43.5
Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
Buffalo Bills 43.5
Baltimore Ravens -3
Chicago Bears 45.5
Houston Texans -4.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 48
Miami Dolphins 45.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5
New York Giants 49.5
Dallas Cowboys -5.5
Detroit Lions 49.5
Indianapolis Colts -5.5
New England Patriots PK
Arizona Cardinals 51
Monday, September 12, 2016
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Washington Redskins 51
Los Angeles Rams -2.5
San Francisco 49ers 47April 15, 2016 at 11:51 am #40550
Football bettors need to circle these situational spots on the 2016 NFL schedule
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Rejoice, for the 2016 NFL schedule officially found its way to the market on Thursday evening.
For those who reside in cold-weather locales, the process of searching for your squad’s most appealing warm-weather road date can now commence. For the gamblers in the house (presumably all of us, otherwise why would you be reading this article?), we will soon find ourselves inundated with 256 sides and 256 totals to analyze and, hopefully, capitalize upon through extensive research and savvy market timing.
Our mission today is to isolate 10 matchups on the schedule that will be worth remembering due to any number of factors. You will find those games listed below.
*The pointspreads listed below are projections created by the author.
Week 1: Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Date: Thursday, September 8 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Projected spread: Denver -3
Don’t put much stock into this pointspread, as we still have no idea which quarterback will be lining up under center for the Broncos in 2016 (Colin Kaepernick, anybody?). However, feel free to put plenty of stock into how the NFL Kickoff game has shaken down since its inception.
Since its inauguration during the 2002 season, the home team has gone a sterling 8-2-4 against the spread in the NFL opener, which includes a 3-1-1 ATS mark over the last five seasons. Additionally, take note that the Under has produced a record of 8-5-1 in this showdown during that span.
Revenge may best be a dish served cold, but Cam Newton and company have a tall task on their hands in trying to take down the most ferocious defense in the league at high elevation to open the season. As a reminder, Carolina went 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS on the road last season, while Denver went 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS at home in 2015.
Week 2: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Date: Sunday, September 18 at 1 p.m. ET
Projected spread: New England -7.5
How’s this for concise: The Patriots are 4-0 SU and ATS over their last four home contests against the Dolphins, whom they’ve defeated by an average of 23.7 points per game in the process.
However, all of that information goes to waste if Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill decides to take the next step in 2016.
Just kidding. We all know that’s not going to happen.
Week 3: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Date: Monday, September 25 at 4 p.m. ET
Projected spread: Seattle -10.5
This one is really simple. Since 2009, the Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS at home against the 49ers, which includes postseason play.
Best of luck to you, Chip Kelly.
Week 3: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Date: September 26 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Projected spread: New Orleans -4
History is littered with instances of the New Orleans Saints dominating the opposition during primetime home showdowns. And that’s exactly why you should pay attention to this Week 3 matchup, as Drew Brees and the Saints are 4-1 SU and ATS since 2011 in home divisional showdowns against the Falcons.
However, we’d also advise you to keep a close eye on the total in this matchup, as the Over is 6-2 in the last eight games played between the Saints and Falcons at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Week 7: New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (London)
Date: Sunday, October 23 at 9:30 a.m. ET
Projected spread: New York Giants -5.5
In 2008, I worked for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Triple-A affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. It was the club’s first season in Allentown, Pennsylvania and the fanfare was electric.
Sadly, the team was not much to speak of as the IronPigs lost their first 11 games of the season before finally breaking through against the Richmond Braves. However, what few fans realized was that each of the team’s players had little time to adjust to life in a new city, which included the rigors of finding suitable housing and learning the local landscape. These issues served as a major distraction for the team as well as a portion of the reason why the franchise struggled so mightily out of the gate.
I wax poetic on this topic because every member of the Rams organization will be going through the exact same thing over the next few months as the franchise transitions to its new home in Los Angeles. Combine those issues with a Week 6 road game in Detroit the week before the team travels to London for a showdown with the Giants, and you have a very sticky scheduling spot. To complicate matters further, the Rams will travel directly to London following the Detroit game, meaning the players and coaches will be away from Los Angeles for close to two straight weeks.
For an organization that will be dealing with plenty of distractions in regards to its move to Los Angeles, this two-week stretch serves as yet another curveball thrown into an already complicated equation.
Week 8: Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date: Sunday, October 30 at 1 p.m. ET
Projected spread: Tampa Bay -1
If you haven’t heard it already, consider this your warning: the Oakland Raiders will be the trendy “sleeper” playoff pick in 2016. But that previous statement doesn’t guarantee the Raiders will be able to sleepwalk their way into the AFC postseason. Oakland’s 2016 schedule includes three different back-to-back road situations, the second of which serves as the most alarming.
In Week 7, the Silver and Black will play a Sunday road date at Jacksonville one week before a Sunday road contest at Tampa Bay, and there are two reasons why that Buccaneers showdown deserves to be circled.
First, back-to-back east coast road dates with early start times can wreak havoc on west coast franchises. Second, the non-conference Tampa Bay road date takes place exactly one week before a marquee Sunday night home showdown against division-rival Denver.
Essentially, what we have here is your classic lookahead spot combined with the second leg of an east coast back-to-back. If there’s a more obvious trap game on the 2016 NFL schedule, I have yet to identify it.
Weeks 7 and 14: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
Date(s): Sunday, October 23 at 1 p.m. ET and Sunday, December 11 at 1 p.m. ET
Projected spread(s): Cincinnati -10.5 and Cincinnati -6.5
On a sunny, sun-kissed Sunday afternoon in December of 2012, Carolina head coach Ron Rivera took his Panthers across the country to San Diego to face the Chargers as 3-point underdogs. But when the dust had settled on that fine winter afternoon, Carolina stood victorious by way of a 31-7 annihilation that left more than a few patrons scratching their heads.
Why are we referencing this obscure matchup in the Cincinnati-Cleveland section of all places? Simple. Part of the reason why Rivera and his Panthers had so much success against San Diego on that Sunday afternoon was because of inside information.
For those who don’t remember, Rivera actually served as the Chargers defensive coordinator from 2008-2010, so he had intimate knowledge of both San Diego’s personnel and Norv Turner’s offense.
Which brings us to the two matchups between Cincinnati and Cleveland scheduled to take place in 2016. For those who may have forgotten, new Browns head coach Hue Jackson served as Cincinnati’s offensive coordinator in 2014 and 2015, so he has a real good idea of what the Bengals will be throwing at him this season. So much so, in fact, that the Week 14 matchup between these two clubs in Cleveland could wind up as one of the upcoming season’s biggest upsets.
However, be advised that the initial encounter between Cincinnati and Cleveland this year (Week 7) will serve as the fifth road date in the season’s first seven weeks for Jackson’s Browns, which could lead to both fatigue and sloppy play.
Week 9: Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks
Date: Monday, November 7 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Projected spread: Seattle -9.5
During the Pete Carroll era, the Seattle Seahawks are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing at home on Monday Night Football while winning by an average of 10.2 points per game.
But more importantly, take note that every single Monday night home game during the Russell Wilson era has stayed Under the total (0-3 O/U), with a total average score of 30 points serving as the result through three contests. Each of these three games has featured a dominating defensive performance on behalf of the Seahawks, who have permitted an average of just 9.6 points per game at home on Monday night since 2012.
Take note that this is Buffalo’s first trip to the Pacific Northwest since November 28, 2004.
Week 11: Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (Mexico City)
Date: Monday, November 21 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Projected spread: Houston -2.5
For one reason and one reason only: This game will be played at an altitude of 7,382 feet.
To put that into perspective, Invesco Field at Mile High in Denver is located at an elevation of 5,280 feet. Now, this may not appear to be that significant of an issue, but be advised that Oakland will enter Week 11 fresh and rested thanks to a Week 10 bye, while Houston will play a road game at Jacksonville the Sunday before traveling to Mexico City in order to participate in a showdown that will be played at the highest elevation in NFL history.
Advantage: Raiders.April 15, 2016 at 12:28 pm #40565
The Titans FLEECE the Rams
What were the Rams thinking?? We ALL know the drill here. The sucker teams trades away a bunch of draft picks to get the player they want. Yes, the Falcons had a nice trade getting Julio Jones doing this, but even with Jones panning out as a super player, they still suffered from a depleted draft. And that was one of the few success stories. Contrast that with the more typical result, like the Great Train Robbery where Dallas traded Hershall Walker to the Vikings, and built a dynasty.
While, this trade is not of that magnitude, the Titans will be a better team in 2016 with the extra draft picks. Further, they will be MUCH better in 2017 when the 7-9 Rams will have to give them their no1 pick in 2017! This is a great deal for the Titans.
Given that, how can the Rams have made such a bad deal. The argument CAN be made that an elite NFL QB is worth 7-8 points to the line. Therefore, why not trade a bunch of picks for that chance? The problem is that the chance they will find the elite QB in this draft (if he exists) is virtually nil. We don’t even know who they are going to take!! Surely, it will be Wentz, but do we really believe he has any real chance to be more than a decent NFL starting QB?
The Rams are a losing organization. Teams like that make bad short sighted decisions that doom them to mediocrity. Heck, the Rams in that division could go 4-12 this year, and BOOM, give up their 2017 pick where they could have found their starting QB NEXT year……..
On the sidelines, if you proposed this deal before it was made, we would all laugh at it, saying ‘no one’ would possibly ever make that trade. Hell, if the NFL had a Fantasy Team Draft League, Stephen Nover would be SCREAMING at how unfair it was that the Rams “owner” could ‘dump’ to help the Titans and now he was going to lose just because he didn’t have the Titans as one of his teams………April 15, 2016 at 12:51 pm #40569
Raiders drawing most interest in early betting for season win totals
Ben Fawkes – ESPN Writer
The 2016 NFL schedule has officially been released, but bettors have already been working on next season’s handicapping for several weeks. They’ve also been betting on season win totals.
CG Technology was the first to release season win totals for all 32 teams on Feb. 24, and the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks all opened with the highest win total at 10.5.
Panthers-Broncos opener highlights NFL schedule
The Broncos and Panthers will meet Sept. 8 in a nationally televised Thursday night opener in Denver.
The Cleveland Browns (4.5), San Francisco 49ers (5) and Tennessee Titans (5.5) opened with the three lowest win totals and haven’t moved off those numbers.
There has been a fair amount of action since late February, and seven teams have moved off of their opening number. Limits for bets right now are $1,000 and will be increased to $5,000 after the NFL draft.
The biggest movers from early sharp betting were the overs for the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars.
“We were pretty bullish on the Raiders and opened them at 7, with -135 juice on the over,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of race and sports at CG Technology. “The sharps laid that. We moved to 8, and they laid that as well. We’re now at 8, with the juice at -140 to the over.”
Jacksonville opened at 6 wins (-130 to over) and now sits at 6.5 (-155 to over). Simbal said their books also took several large bets on Jacksonville to win the AFC South, decreasing their odds from +600 to +360.
Other sharp bettors have taken the Baltimore Ravens over (moved from 7.5 to 8) and San Diego Chargers under (-120 to -160).
The public, not surprisingly, has been hitting the Green Bay and Carolina overs hard, moving the juice Carolina from 10.5 (even to -155) and Green Bay all the way to 11 wins.
NFL 2016 Regular-Season Win Totals
TEAM OPEN CURRENT
Arizona Cardinals 9.5 (-120 over) 9.5 (-165 over)
Atlanta Falcons 7 7 (-135 over)
Baltimore Ravens 7.5 (-125 under) 8 (-125 under)
Buffalo Bills 8 8
Carolina Panthers 10.5 (-130 under) 10.5 (-155 over)
Chicago Bears 6.5 (-120 over) 7 (-135 over)
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 9.5 (-120 over)
Cleveland Browns 4.5 (-130 over) 4.5 (-135 under)
Dallas Cowboys 9 (-125 under) 9 (-145 under)
Denver Broncos 9.5 (-120 under) 9.5 (-125 over)
Detroit Lions 7 7 (-130 over)
Green Bay Packers 10.5 11 (-120 under)
Houston Texans 8 (-130 under) 8 (-165 over)
Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (-130 over) 9 (-120 under)
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 (-130 over) 6.5 (-155 over)
Kansas City Chiefs 9 9 (-180 over)
Los Angeles Rams (-130 over) (-125 under)
Miami Dolphins 7 (-125 under) 7 (-135 over)
Minnesota Vikings 9 (-120 over) 7 (-135 over)
New England Patriots 10.5 (-120 over) 10.5 (-155 over)
New Orleans Saints 7 (-130 under) 6.5 (-155 over)
New York Giants 7.5 (-130 over) 7.5 (-150 over)
New York Jets 8 (-125 over) 9 (-125 under)
Oakland Raiders 7.5 (-135 over) 8 (-140 over)
Philadelphia Eagles 7.5 7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 (-125 under) 10.5 (-125 under)
San Diego Chargers 7 (-120 under) 7 (-160 under)
San Francisco 49ers 5 (-120 over) 5 (-145 over)
Seattle Seahawks 10.5 (-125 over) 10.5 (-145 over)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5 (-125 under) 6.5 (-145 over)
Tennessee Titans 5.5 (-130 over) 5.5
Washington Redskins 7.5 (-120 over) 7.5 (-130 over)April 20, 2016 at 5:58 pm #41227
NFL Draft: Eagles taking long-term approach with QB, and that’s good
By Jeff Reynolds | NFLDraftScout
April 20, 2016 4:30 pm ET
Monster moves carry matching consequences, and one way or another, Doug Pederson cast his lot as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles on Wednesday.
Presumably, the Eagles are looking at North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz. If not, Cal’s Jared Goff is the guy.
Pederson wants Wentz. The Eagles have clocked a ton of hours with him, and more studying him as a person and a player.
In a word, they’re sold. And particularly on the Wentz.
“He has everything you want in a quarterback at this level,” Pederson said of Wentz. “You never know. Quarterback is a unique position at the National Football League level. Guys come in here and there’s an expectation level that they have, there’s an expectation level that we have as a coaching staff. I like him, I like his arm strength, his mobility, he’s a bigger kid. I think he’s got all the tools to be an NFL quarterback.
“When you finally get him, get him in your building, get your hands on him, break him down, the kid is pretty impressive.”
Except for this: The Rams are taking a quarterback at No. 1 and the Eagles last month forked over $57 million in total contract value to Sam Bradford (two years, $36 million) and Chase Daniel (three years, up to $21 million).
The Eagles need to peek only as far as the Browns’ trail of tears at quarterback to know the peril that lies in taking second-tier quarterbacks (Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel) and hoping to find a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. The trade signals a long view from a franchise that tried, and whiffed, on splashy overhauls through free agency a time too many.
Howie Roseman, back in the big personnel chair after Chip Kelly moved out, said Wednesday the starting job belongs to Bradford.
“Let me be clear: Sam Bradford is our starting quarterback,” Roseman said Wednesday. “We told Sam that. We intend to support him and the moves we made this offseason, we believe, will give us a chance to compete this season.”
Roseman said the Eagles are very sure “we’re going to get the player we want” at No. 2.
The Rams this week said they were 97 percent sure they knew who they’d take at No. 1, but of course general manager Les Snead isn’t telling.
“You have to be very comfortable with both of those quarterbacks and believe that they have a shot to being great, to being Pro Bowl caliber,” Roseman said. “If you felt really strongly about just one and you didn’t feel like you knew the direction (Los Angeles) was going in, then you’d wait until you were on the clock to make this trade.”
According to Roseman, talks with the Browns and previously the Tennessee Titans — who scored a bounty of picks from the Rams for the No. 1 overall pick — have been going on for three weeks.
Roseman pointed to Pederson’s experience developing Donovan McNabb — drafted second overall in 1999 after Cleveland drafted Tim Couch first — sitting for part of his rookie year.
“That’s one of the things that we also looked at: We’re not positioned where anyone has to come in and play this year, conceivably next year,” Roseman said.
Wentz, here against Iowa State, has limited experience vs. FBS opponents. (USATSI)
Wentz played 24 games at North Dakota State and only played one game against FBS competition. He won over the scouting community as a whole with a strong performance at the Senior Bowl in January and by all measures aced his pro day (Dane Brugler gave him a shiny star for his Fargo workout).
What scouts love about him: size, arm strength, mobility, poise, character and leadership. And maybe more than anything else, potential. That’s the greatest edge Wentz holds over Goff.
The Eagles are a soft landing in some ways for a rookie quarterback who not only won’t be asked to start, he very likely would have a redshirt season as the No. 3 quarterback and gameday inactive unless Philadelphia falls out of playoff contention or Bradford’s balky knees bit him once more.
Sold, Roseman is, and Pederson, too.
But at what cost? Two first-round picks (No. 8 this year) including 2017, a second-rounder in 2017 and a third-round pick in this draft.
The trade doesn’t bankrupt the present roster. However, the deal might very well push Roseman back into building roster depth in free agency, a minefield for the Eagles in recent seasons.
Finding a franchise quarterback can be an impossible mission. The Eagles sound convinced they will have one next Thursday.
“It’s hard to be great if you don’t take some risks. When you look at it, there are very few sure things at any position in the draft,” Roseman said. “But it’s a great opportunity for someone who not only has the coaching that we have here and the support they have here, but the benefit of time. We saw that with Doug being here with Donovan [McNabb]. You saw that in Green Bay. You saw that in San Diego with Philip Rivers. You certainly saw that in New England with Tom Brady and the benefit of sitting and watching and observing.”April 20, 2016 at 8:05 pm #41258
NEWSLETTER NFL Draft Prop Prediction From Raphael Esparza
Take Carson Wentz (-105) First Overall – 2016 NFL Draft
(Thursday, April 28)
The Los Angeles Rams now have the No.1 pick in the draft and everybody knows the Rams traded for this pick to grab a quarterback. In my eyes it’s a no brainier to grab North Dakota State senior QB Carson Wentz as the No. 1 pick. Wentz is built to be an NFL quarterback; he is tall and has a monster arm to throw down the field. Everybody talks about the level of competition he dealt with at North Dakota St, but look at Big Ben in Pittsburgh and Joe Flacco at Baltimore. They didn’t come out of big college schools and they have won Super Bowls. I’m not saying that Carson Wentz is going to take the L.A. Rams to the Super Bowl, but I do believe he is the top QB in this draft.April 21, 2016 at 12:12 pm #41327
Eagles Likely to Crash and Burn
Thursday, April 21
The Philadelphia Eagles have been relatively quiet since firing Chip Kelly before the end of his third season with them. The turbulence and controversy hasn’t stopped, though.
The Eagles just moved up to No. 2 in the draft by giving up their No. 1, No. 3 and No. 4 draft choices this season plus their No. 1 and No. 2 draft picks next year to the Browns to move up six spots in the draft plus get Cleveland’s fourth-round draft pick in 2017. In other words, the Eagles surrendered an extra first-round pick, second-round pick and third-round pick to draft either Jared Goff or Carson Wentz.
The Rams are likely to grab Goff leaving the Eagles to take Wentz. It’s a foolish gamble for the Eagles since earlier this year they signed San Bradford to a two-year $35 million deal that includes $22 in guaranteed money and also inked Chiefs backup quarterback Chase Daniel to a three-year, $21 million deal with $12 million guaranteed. So Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie already has tied up $34 million in guaranteed money to Bradford and Daniel.
Without high draft picks and free agent money the Eagles are at a real disadvantage. There’s no guarantee Goff or Wentz turns out – and the Rams get first crack at the one they believe is best.
Neither Goff nor Wentz are rated as a sure-fire franchise quarterbacks. I rate them lower than Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, last year’s top two quarterback picks who went 1-2 in the draft. I didn’t like the Rams surrendering a king’s ransom to move into the No. 1 draft spot. I like the Eagles’ move even less.
The Eagles could have stayed at No. 8 and likely had a choice of a stud lineman – either on offense or defense – or maybe the top ranked wider receiver or running back. Then in the second round they could have addressed their quarterback future by taking either Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg since they are so unsure of Bradford and Daniel despite just shelling out big bucks for them.
That way the Eagles would have upgraded their roster while not gambling their future away.
The NFC East turned very weak in 2015. The Redskins are the defending division champs. Dallas is a factor as long as Tony Romo is healthy. The Giants made huge free agent news upgrading their defense with multiple signings. The Eagles certainly appear now to be the weakest team in the division since they are the least likely to improve themselves in the draft.April 21, 2016 at 4:18 pm #41354
Las Vegas betting odds released for every 2016 NFL game
Thursday Apr 21, 2016
The NFL Draft is still a week away, but one sportsbook has kicked off the NFL betting season by already releasing odds for every week of the upcoming season.
Las Vegas based sportsbook CG Technology has given an exclusive look at their opening odds for Weeks 1 through 16 that hit the board Thursday morning.
Check out the odds for every game below
(*Week 17 was excluded due to the nature of the week*):
Thursday, Sept. 8, 2016
Panthers at Broncos (-1.5, 43.5)
Sunday, Sept. 11, 2016
Buccaneers at Falcons (-3,46)
Vikings at Titans (+3, 43)
Browns at Eagles (-7.5, 45.5)
Bengals at Jets (+1, 43)
Raiders at Saints (Pick, 50)
Chargers at Chiefs (-7, 43)
Bills at Ravens (-3, 43.5)
Bears at Texans (-5, 44.5)
Packers at Jaguars (+3.5, 47)
Dolphins at Seahawks (-8.5, 44.5)
Giants at Cowboys (-4, 50)
Lions at Colts (-4, 50)
Patriots at Cardinals (-1, 51.5)
Monday, Sept. 12, 2016
Steelers at Washington (+3, 50.5)
Rams at 49ers (+2, 46)
Thursday, Sept. 15, 2016
Jets at Bills (-2)
Sunday Sept. 18, 2016
49ers at Panthers (-11.5)
Cowboys at Washington (Pick)
Bengals at Steelers (-4)
Saints at Giants (-4.5)
Dolphins at Patriots (-9.5)
Chiefs at Texans (Pick)
Titans at Lions (-5)
Ravens at Browns (+3)
Seahawks at Rams (+4)
Buccaneers at Cardinals (-9)
Jaguars at Chargers (-2.5)
Falcons at Raiders (-3.5)
Colts at Broncos (-5)
Packers at Vikings (Pick)
Monday Sept. 19, 2016
Eagles at Bears (-2.5)
Thursday Sept. 22, 2016
Texans at Patriots (-8)
Sunday Sept. 25, 2016
Cardinals at Bills (+2.5)
Raiders at Titans (+2.5)
Washington at Giants (-3)
Browns at Dolphins (-7)
Ravens at Jaguars (Pick)
Lions at Packers (-8.5)
Broncos at Bengals (-3)
Vikings at Panthers (-5.5)
Rams at Buccaneers (-1)
49ers at Seahawks (-14)
Jets at Chiefs (-3.5)
Chargers at Colts (-5.5)
Steelers at Eagles (+3)
Bears at Cowboys (-6)
Monday Sept. 36, 2016
Falcons at Saints (-1.5)
Thursday Sept. 29, 2016
Dolphins at Bengals (-6.5)
Sunday Oct. 2, 2016
Colts at Jaguars *Played in London, England* (+3.5)
Titans at Texans (-7)
Browns at Washington (-7.5)
Seahawks at Jets (+2)
Bills at Patriots (-7)
Panthers at Falcons (+3.5)
Raiders at Ravens (-2)
Lions at Bears (-1.5)
Broncos at Buccaneers (+2.5)
Rams at Cardinals (-7)
Saints at Chargers (-3)
Cowboys at 49ers (+3)
Chiefs at Steelers (-4)
Monday Oct. 3, 2016
Giants at Vikings (6)
Thursday Oct. 6, 2016
Cardinals at 49ers (+6)
Sunday Oct. 9, 2016
Patriots at Browns (+7)
Eagles at Lions (-1)
Bears at Colts (-3.5)
Titans at Dolphins (-5.5)
Washington at Ravens (-2.5)
Texans at Vikings (-6)
Jets at Steelers (-6)
Falcons at Broncos (-6.5)
Bengals at Cowboys (Pick)
Bills at Rams (-1)
Chargers at Raiders (-4.5)
Giants at Packers (-8)
Monday Oct. 10, 2016
Buccaneers at Panthers (-10)
Thursday Oct. 13, 2016
Broncos at Chargers (+3)
Sunday Oct. 16, 2016
49ers at Bills (-7)
Eagles at Washington (-3)
Browns at Titans (-3.5)
Ravens at Giants (-3)
Panthers at Saints (+4.5)
Jaguars at Bears (-3.5)
Rams at Lions (-1.5)
Steelers at Dolphins (+3.5)
Bengals at Patriots (-4)
Chiefs at Raiders (Pick)
Falcons at Seahawks (-10)
Cowboys at Packers (-6)
Colts at Texans (-1.5)
Monday Oct. 17, 2016
Jets at Cardinals (-4)
Thursday Oct. 20, 2016
Bears at Packers (-9)
Sunday Oct. 23, 2016
Giants at Rams *Played in London, England* (Pick)
Saints at Chiefs (-8)
Colts at Titans (+3.5)
Vikings at Eagles (+1.5)
Browns at Bengals (-11.5)
Washington at Lions (-1)
Raiders at Jaguars (Pick)
Bills at Dolphins (-1)
Ravens at Jets (-4)
Buccaneers at 49ers (Pick)
Chargers at Falcons (-3)
Patriots at Steelers (OFF)
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1)
Monday Oct. 24, 2016
Texans at Broncos (-6.5)
Thursday Oct. 27, 2016
Jaguars at Titans (Pick)
Sunday Oct. 30, 2016
Washington at Bengals *Played in London, England* (-4)
Chiefs at Colts (-1)
Raiders at Buccaneers (Pick)
Seahawks at Saints (+5)
Lions at Texans (-4)
Jets at Browns (+5)
Packers at Falcons (+4)
Patriots at Bills (+3)
Chargers at Broncos (-7)
Cardinals at Panthers (-3.5)
Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5)
Monday Oct. 31, 2016
Vikings at Bears (+2.5)
Thursday Nov. 3, 2016
Falcons at Buccaneers (-1.5)
Sunday Nov. 6, 2016
Lions at Vikings (-6.5)
Eagles at Giants (-3)
Jets at Dolphins (Pick)
Jaguars at Chiefs (-7)
Cowboys at Browns (-5)
Steelers at Ravens (-2.5)
Saints at 49ers (Pick)
Panthers at Rams (+3.5)
Colts at Packers (-6)
Titans at Chargers (-4.5)
Broncos at Raiders (+1)
Monday Nov. 7, 2016
Bills at Seahawks (-10)
Thursday Nov. 10, 2016
Browns at Ravens (-8.5)
Sunday Nov. 13, 2016
Texans at Jaguars (+1)
Broncos at Saints (+1)
Rams at Jets (-4)
Falcons at Eagles (-2,5)
Chiefs at Panthers (-4.5)
Bears at Buccaneers (-2)
Vikings at Washington (+1.5)
Packers at Titans (+7.5)
Dolphins at Chargers (-1)
49ers at Cardinals (-10.5)
Cowboys at Steelers (-6)
Seahawks at Patriots (-2)
Monday Nov. 14, 2016
Bengals at Giants (+2)
Thursday Nov. 17, 2016
Saints at Panthers (-10)
Sunday Nov. 20, 2016
Steelers at Browns (+8.5)
Ravens at Cowboys (-4.5)
Jaguars at Lions (-3.5)
Titans at Colts (-8)
Bills at Bengals (-5.5)
Buccaneers at Chiefs (-7)
Bears at Giants (-4)
Cardinals at Vikings (-1.5)
Dolphins at Rams (-2)
Patriots at 49ers (+6)
Eagles at Seahawks (-9)
Packers at Washington (+2.5)
Monday Nov. 21, 2016
Texans at Raiders (-2)
Thursday Nov. 24, 2016
Vikings at Lions (+2.5)
Washington at Cowboys (-3.5)
Steelers at Colts (-1.5)
Sunday Nov. 27, 2016
Titans at Bears (-5)
Jaguars at Bills (-5)
Bengals at Ravens (+1.5)
Cardinals at Falcons (-2.5)
Giants at Browns (-3.5)
Rams at Saints (-1.5)
49ers at Dolphins (-5)
Chargers at Texans (-4.5)
Seahawks at Buccaneers (+5)
Panthers at Raiders (+3)
Chiefs at Broncos (-3)
Patriots at Jets (+2.5)
Monday Nov. 28, 2016
Packers at Eagles (+3.5)
Thursday Dec. 1, 2016
Cowboys at Vikings (-4.5)
Sunday Dec. 4, 2016
Chiefs at Falcons (Pick)
Lions at Saints (-2)
Rams at Patriots (-9)
Broncos at Jaguars (+3.5)
Texans at Packers (-7)
Eagles at Bengals (-5)
Dolphins at Ravens (-3)
49ers at Bears (-5)
Bills at Raiders (-1.5)
Giants at Steelers (-7.5)
Washington at Cardinals (-6.5)
Buccaneers at Chargers (-2)
Panthers at Seahawks (-3)
Monday Dec. 5, 2016
Colts at Jets (-2)
Thursday Dec. 8, 2016
Raiders at Chiefs (-4.5)
Sunday Dec. 11, 2016
Steelers at Bills (+2)
Broncos at Titans (+5.5)
Saints at Buccaneers (-3)
Washington at Eagles (-2)
Cardinals at Dolphins (+3)
Chargers at Panthers (-10)
Bengals at Browns (+7.5)
Bears at Lions (-2.5)
Texans at Colts (-4)
Vikings at Jaguars (+2.5)
Jets at 49ers (Pick)
Falcons at Rams (-3)
Seahawks at Packers (-2)
Cowboys at Giants (-1)
Monday Dec. 12, 2016
Ravens at Patriots (-9)
Thursday Dec. 15, 2016
Rams at Seahawks (-1)
Saturday Dec. 17, 2016
Dolphins at Jets (-5)
Sunday Dec. 18, 2016
Packers at Bears (+5)
Buccaneers at Cowboys (-6)
Jaguars at Texans (-4.5)
Browns at Bills (-9)
Eagles at Ravens (+3)
Titans at Chiefs (-9)
Lions at Giants (-3)
Colts at Vikings (-4)
Saints at Cardinals (-9)
49ers at Falcons (-5)
Patriots at Broncos (+1)
Raiders at Chargers (+1)
Steelers at Bengals (Pick)
Monday Dec. 19, 2016
Panthers at Washington (+3)
Thursday Dec. 22, 2016
Giants at Eagles (-2.5)
Saturday Dec. 24, 2016
Dolphins at Bills (-3.5)
Buccaneers at Saints (-2.5)
Jets at Patriots (-6.5)
Titans at Jaguars (-4.5)
Vikings at Packers (-4.5)
Chargers at Browns (+2)
Washington at Bears (Pick)
Falcons at Panthers (-8.5)
Colts at Raiders (-1)
Cardinals at Seahawks (-3.5)
49ers at Rams (-5.5)
Bengals at Texans (+1)
Sunday Dec. 25, 2016
Ravens at Steelers (-8)
Broncos at Chiefs (-1.5)
Monday Dec. 26, 2016
Lions at Cowboys (-5)April 21, 2016 at 8:31 pm #41417
The list of betting lines (above) for the 2016 NFL season and how they were put together
By Patrick Everson
The NFL’s 2016 regular season doesn’t kick off until Sept. 8, a Thursday night affair marking a rematch of Super Bowl 50, with the champion Denver Broncos hosting the Carolina Panthers.
Yet right now, you can not only bet that game and every other Week 1 matchup, but every matchup through the season’s first 16 weeks. As has become the norm for CG Technology, the Las Vegas sportsbook operator just posted lines for every single regular-season contest except those in Week 17.
It sounds like a monumental task, and indeed it is, but much of the heavy lifting was done long before this week, according to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG.
“We’ve had season win totals up for more than a month already,” Simbal. “Basically, to those win totals, you have to put a value on every team, and a pointspread [for every game] based on those values. So we already had the bulk of the information.”
To that information, CG added events of recent weeks, such as trades and draft expectations.
“We just had some clean-up to do, once the schedules were released last week,” Simbal said.
So at that point, how is the sausage made?
“A group of four or five of us had already made lines. So we put those back up and see if any need to be adjusted,” Simbal said. “A good example: We opened the Raiders’ win total at 7.5 [in February], and they got bet up to 8, and kept getting bet. So based on that information, we know that the public perception of the Raiders is higher than when we did our season win totals.
“So we had to go back to the drawing board and tweak all of their lines. We had to do that on the Ravens also. We opened them at 7.5 wins, and they got bet up to 8.”
CG had a handful of teams at the top of the pile, with a season win total of 10.5: Seattle, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Green Bay and New England. But that doesn’t mean those teams rate as equals when it comes to adjusting the line for 16 weeks’ worth of games.
“We always add a little bit to the Seattle Seahawks, because they’re the best team and people like betting them,” Simbal said. “It became clear that of those five teams, the public was more bullish on the Seahawks and the Packers than on those other three.”
With so much work done back in February that tied into releasing 16 weeks’ worth of lines, data entry really became the most arduous task this past week.
“Quite honestly, the biggest part of this process is getting all these events into the system – inputting all the games, inputting all the spreads,” Simbal said. “That takes quite a while. It’s a lot of work from a lot of people. A very underestimated aspect of this is systematically having all these games in the system at once. No one really thinks of that aspect.”
“The games don’t just magically appear on the board. Human beings have to put in some good work.”
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