February 5, 2016 at 8:49 pm #29557
‘Super Bowl 50’
Panthers -5.5 over Broncos
The super bowl is not a game, it is an event. Vegas has all of their man power breaking down the numbers and focusing on just one game, this makes it harder for the average gamblers to bet because you can’t find true value. This is the time of year where $100 players bet $1000 on the game, don’t be that person. Remember that a play is a play.
When the line went up two weeks ago there has been non stop talk about how the money is all over Carolina. How many people are really flying out to Vegas to bet two weeks before the game? ESPN themselves have done multiple articles about the betting public being all over Carolina. Las Vegas is not in business to let the world know where the bets are coming in and where the money is coming in. That secret is their edge. I have a theory and I believe they do things like that on purpose to get the sharp bettors to wager on Denver. I admit when I first saw all of the reports I made my case for Denver and for the good part of these two weeks they were my front runner, but after breaking down the game there was one thing that I just could not look past. TURNOVERS.
Peyton Manning clearly is not what he once was and sadly this year he has been a turnover machine. The best team in the NFL at forcing and creating turnovers is Carolina. We really could leave this write up right at that. This Carolina Defense puts their offense in position to score. The Panthers work on short fields which makes putting up points pretty easy. The Broncos Defense is very impressive and they obviously have the talent to win this game by themselves, but you really are asking a lot from this unit to carry their below average offensive on their backs for yet another game.
Now let us save the best for last. Cam Newton is a tremendous talent that can punish defensive players by running the ball. Denver has not seen a QB like his all year. You could make a small comparison to Alex Smith of the Chiefs, but it is a small comparison. Carolina pushes all the right buttons to win on both sides of the ball and if we look at recent past history in the super bowl then we know this is the type of team that usually cashes the ticket in these big games. Denver is an $80 flight and it takes a little over an hour to get to Las Vegas. I don’t believe for one second that there is lopsided money on this game and I believe we are going to see all of the late money come in on Denver on game day.
Here are my closing thoughts and I will keep them simple. Carolina leads the NFL in turnovers. If they can’t beat a guy that is the oldest QB to start a super bowl and who turned the ball over more than any other QB this year than so be it. I can live with that type of loss.
It has been a good season for us and I thank all of you who were on board this year. Enjoy the game. Take Carolina.
SUPER BOWL PROP BETS
1. Coin Toss
2. Who will catch first TD Pass
Denver – Emanuel Sanders 10/1 odds
Carolina – Jerricho Cotchery 25/1 odds
3. Longest TD in game
Under 44.5 yards -115
4. Total successful Field Goals
5. Longest Field Goal in game
Over 44 Yards -125
6. Will both teams have Field Goals Over 33 yards?
7. Total receiving yards for Jerricho Cotchery
8. Will there be a special teams or defensive score?
9. Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes 30 seconds of the game?
10. Team to commit the most turnovers?
Broncos -140February 6, 2016 at 12:40 pm #29669
The Champ – Tony Chau
‘Super Bowl 50’
Carolina PanthersFebruary 6, 2016 at 12:43 pm #29670
Root Trust Football Service
Panthers/Broncos – UNDER 45 Points
3:30 PM (EST) — Levi’s Stadium
Broncos (+5½) over Panthers
3:30 PM (EST) — Levi’s Stadium
Denver Broncos 1) Wayne”s LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS! 2) Classic “Sharps vs Squares” matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps. 3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it”s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history…and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can”t resist)…D almost always wins. I”ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver. 4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it”s Peyton. Edge: Denver. 5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago…he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather- as of now forecast is 68 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver. 6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver. 7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver. 8) Line moves- line opened +3 1/2. Today it”s 6. That alone is very significant. Those 2 1/2 points could determine the game. Denver now covers or pushes all the statistically important NFL numbers- 3, 4 and 6. Edge: Denver. 9) The team with the worst recordhas won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into “chip on shoulder” psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver. 10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a “big game.” I define “come from behind” as behind 7 or more at any time in any game…and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver —————- According to William Hill US Sportsbook, 93% of the money wagered against the spread so far has come in on the Panthers. In addition, 81 percent of the tickets have had Carolina listed on them. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +190).
12 Super Bowl Props
1) Denver. -2.5. ML+210
2) First score of game:
Denver field goal.
3) Will there be an overtime.
4) Total points scored by Carolina.
Under 25, -105
5) First team to score 10 PT”s or more;
6) Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points?
Von Miller. 20/1
8) Owen Daniels total receiving yards.
Over 31.5. -120
9) Emmanuel Sanders total pass receptions
OVER 5.5. -115
10) Will Denver score a TD in the 3rd quarter?
11) Alternative game total.
Under 38.5 +240
12) Largest lead of game by either team.
Under 13.5. +160February 6, 2016 at 12:43 pm #29671
UNDER 45February 6, 2016 at 12:44 pm #29672
Don Best Advantage
Denver/Carolina – Under 45February 6, 2016 at 10:41 pm #29778
Incredible 100% ATS Super Bowl Super Play!
Denver BroncosFebruary 6, 2016 at 11:07 pm #29779
JLB SPORTS INFO
::: SUPER BOWL 50 ACCESS :::
BRONCOS +11.5 :: PANTHERS/BRONCOS – UNDER 51.5
(7PT TEASER ‘ TIES REDUCE) -125
$500 *1ST HALF*
PANTHERS -3 (1H) -125February 6, 2016 at 11:38 pm #29789
UNDERFebruary 6, 2016 at 11:40 pm #29790
*HOT SIDE* 10* SUPER BOWL MAIN EVENT! (37-18 L55 NFL!)
Denver Broncos+6February 7, 2016 at 12:02 am #29799
Props will not be part of the official record because they aren’t always widely available and prices vary.
First Prop for ‘SB 50’
No score in the first 6:30 of the game -110 good to -130
Second Prop for ‘SB 50’
E. Sanders – Over 69.5 receiving yds -115
Third Prop for ‘SB 50’
V. Davis – Over 5.5 receiving yds +155
Fourth Prop for ‘SB 50’
Both teams will make field goals of 33+ yds +105
Fifth Prop for ‘SB 50’
Panthers to have a rushing att Over 4.5 +130
Sixth Prop for ‘SB 50’
Carolina Under 25 -110 team total pts
Seventh Prop for ‘SB 50’
First score of game other than a touchdown +120
*need to get at least +120.February 7, 2016 at 12:15 am #29805
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
NFL ‘SUPER BOWL 50 PLAYS’
4 Unit Play. Take #101 Carolina -5.5
(6:30p.m., Sunday Feb 7CBS)
I know this number is a bit too high but I have been wrong with this Carolina Panthers team all season long (except playoffs). The rushing game of the Carolina Panthers will be too much for the Denver defense in the second half and in the second half is when I see the Panthers pulling away. Both QB’s will have big games and both D’s will have great stops but again the second half will be too much for Denver and Cam Newton and the Panthers control the tempo after halftime. I do believe this game will be close from start to finish and I see Carolina winning Super Bowl 50 by either score of 24-17 or 26-20. Carolina is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and the Denver Broncos are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
3 Unit Play. Take Second Half & OT -.05 -105 More Points Scored in Which Half
(6:30p.m., Sunday Feb 7 CBS)
I believe defense will be the key in this game and we should see second half points coming with ease. The first half the Broncos defense will be hard hitting and wouldn’t shock me to see 0 points scored in the 1st Quarter. Look for Carolina in the 2nd half to pick apart the Broncos and I see Cam Newton having a big game. The run game from Carolina will also be key in the second half.
2 Unit Play. Take Yes +120 Will Cam Newton Score a Rushing Touchdown
(6:30p.m., Sunday Feb 7 CBS)
A bit shocked that this prop had plus money attached! If Carolina gets to the goal line in this game you would have to believe that Cam Newton would jump over the pile and score a rushing touchdown.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 5.5 -145 Total Sacks in the Super Bowl (6:30p.m., Sunday Feb 7 CBS)
I know both teams have outstanding defenses but wow total sacks in the Super Bowl at 5.5 is way to high. The Denver Broncos sacked Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game 4 times but with Cam Newton being so mobile I don’t see Denver getting to him that much Sunday night. Carolina had 3 sacks against the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship and wouldn’t shock me to see Carolina get to Peyton Manning but again with a high number of 5.5 I just don’t see 6 sacks in Super Bowl 50 to beat this under prop bet.
6 Unit Play. Take DeAndre Jordan +.5 -140 Free Throws Made vs Total Field Goals Made in the Super Bowl
(6:30p.m., Sunday Feb 7 CBS)
Talk about a soft prop number! Love DeAndre Jordan to make more free throws Sunday morning against Total Field Goals made in the Super Bowl. Wednesday night at home the Clippers lost to Minnesota and D. Jordan shot 4-10 from free throw line. Jordan last 2 games he has made 9 free throws and I see him Sunday against Miami making between 4 to 5 free throws. For the Super Bowl I see 2 or 3 Filed Goals made, as touchdowns will be scored more then field goals. Grab this prop now because I see the juice climbing and I’m hoping the Miami Heat go to hack-a-Jordan Sunday morning.February 7, 2016 at 12:16 am #29806
Score: den 23- car 19February 7, 2016 at 12:16 am #29807
Carolina by 11 pointsFebruary 7, 2016 at 12:17 am #29808
No ‘best bet’
Cousin Sal likes Denver +6 in the game & 3 prop bets.
3 consecutive scores YES -160…..Any other TD Denver side gets 30-1, and Carolina 25-1…February 7, 2016 at 12:18 am #29809
Best Superbowl prop every year
Unless ur book has specific rules for this….
YES….3 consecutive scores
Remember a TD and extra point is 2 scores (especially this year with it moved back) which means every TD has you 2/3 towards winning.
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.