February 7, 2016 at 4:30 pm #29977
HC Picks (Britney Deluca)
Take DENVER +6 to chase the cats away in my biggest play of the season….take them to win the game straight up too
Here is a little prop fun too…..Take HEADS on the coin tossFebruary 7, 2016 at 4:34 pm #29978
Big money bets on Broncos, wiseguys betting ‘Under’ in Super Bowl 50
By Jason Logan
Big money bets on the Denver Broncos over the weekend has forced CG Technology sportsbooks across Las Vegas to drop their Super Bowl 50 spread to Carolina Panthers -5, just hours before kickoff.
According to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, which operates a number of books around town, including The M, Venetian and the Cosmopolitan, six-figure wagers made their way to the counter, as well as numerous five-figure bets, buying up the Broncos +5.5 as well as their moneyline odds to win the game outright (Denver +175/Carolina -200).
“It’s crazy, we are pretty much dead even 50/50 in terms of money right now, with only about $15,000 separating both sides of the handle,” Simbal. “That’s crazy when you think of the million and millions being bet on this game.”
With this late money on the Broncos, could CG Technology trim their spread even further?
“It could happen,” says Simbal of the possibility of closing the Super Bowl 50 spread at Carolina -4.5. “It’s more likely it will go that way instead of going the other way for sure.”
Big money has also come in on the Under, at CG Technology books. Simbal says 70 percent of bets made are on the Over but 55 percent of the money is riding on the Under.
“Those are big bets on the Under,” he says. “A lot of the smarter guys have come in on the Under.”
Other Super Bowl 50 offerings seeing one-sided money in the hours before kickoff are “Will Cam Newton score the first touchdown” and the alternative spreads, with many grabbing up big plus-money price tags on options like Carolina -14.5, -17.5, and -21.5.
“That -21.5 is at like +420, and it plays into the narrative that many think, with Carolina blowing out Denver,” says Simbal. “If the Panthers blow them out, it will hurt us.”February 7, 2016 at 4:40 pm #29980
7-3-1 NFL Run
1* – (101) CAR @ (102) DEN:
Panthers -6 – TBDFebruary 7, 2016 at 5:57 pm #29982
5-UNITS on Panthers/Broncos – UNDER 44
(Super Bowl Best Bet)
(6:35 et kickoff on CBS) (# 102)February 7, 2016 at 5:57 pm #29983
Denver Broncos +5.5
1 UnitFebruary 7, 2016 at 5:58 pm #29984
2* Carolina -5
Under 44.5February 7, 2016 at 6:02 pm #29985
A 5-point Carolina win would leave online books ‘absolutely crushed’ in Super Bowl 50
By Jason Logan
The big swing in betting towards the Denver Broncos has been the surprise story of the weekend for Super Bowl 50 betting. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are reporting huge bets on the underdog, and online bookmakers are seeing a similar trend as Super Bowl 50 closes in.
Sportsbooks took one-sided action on the Carolina Panthers when Super Bowl odds hit the board two weeks ago. And it stayed that way for about a week and a half, driving the spread as high as Carolina -6, before Denver money stormed the sportsbooks Friday, Saturday and Super Sunday.
“We briefly moved to Carolina -5 last night but have since returned to -5.5,” John Lester, lines manager for Bookmaker. “More money has come in on Denver over the past couple of days as the underdog bettors didn’t see another spike they were hoping for.”
According to Lester, 70 percent of their wagers are on Carolina but just 65 percent of the money is on the Super Bowl favorite. The one-sided action on the Panthers -4.5 and -5 earlier in betting and the big money on Denver at +5.5 has Bookmaker sweating a so-called dead number heading into the “Big Game.”
“We’ll get absolutely crushed if Carolina wins this game by five points,” says Lester. “A Broncos loss but cover is the ideal scenario.”
As for the total, it was sitting as high as 45.5 points during the bye week but has since been trimmed with smarter bettors hammering the Under in Super Bowl 50. According to CarbonGaming, while the public is betting the Over, they’re having to respect the sharp money on the Under.
“Yesterday morning we adjusted the total again to 44.5 as sharp money keeps pounding the Under, and later this morning we moved the total down to 44 as the sharp action keeps coming in,” says Michael Stewart of CarbonGaming. “As we sit right now the Over is holding 65 percent of the action on the total.”February 7, 2016 at 6:08 pm #29986
Super Bowl Side Selection
The collective bottom line for the past 49 Super Bowls has been defense. Yes, Denver has the #1 defense in the NFL & is #1 in sacks as well. However, DC Sean McDermott & his Carolina Panthers “D” isn’t too far behind. Instead of getting into a page and a half worth of Super Bowl trends & systems that won’t carry that much worth here, fundamental handicapping is the true meat and potatoes of being on the right side more often than not.
I’m not saying playing a team at ANY line, but playing them after adjustments are made at YOUR line. Clearly, my advice is to play my Super Bowl propositions -where the true money will be won. Now let’s talk about DC Wade Phillips & the Denver defense. They have a very dynamic 3-4 scheme that’s uniquely blessed with having the talent to play one-gap. While most teams are stuck on playing both the A & B gaps, the Broncos unique front line pressure allows them to do a great amount of the one-player, one-gap responsibility.
The problem exists when this “D” gets tired after their offense has too many drives stalled. Orange & Blue QB Peyton Manning knows his chances for the “W” are highly probable IF he can get close to 30 rushes for 105 yards or more from his backfield. I feel McDermott will roll the dice & stack the box forcing his athletic secondary to perform by getting those 3 & out’s along with a few TO’s. Keep in mind, HC Ron Rivers knows manning well having went up against him as former DC of the San Diego Chargers.
Flipping the coin to the Panthers’ offensive side of the ball, I feel QB Cam Newton is playing on a another level since he has a very balanced offense that’s ran the ball 526 times & passed it 501. It may not seem line black & blue domination from the get-go when the Orange Crush is at peak performance, but in the second half when the adjustments are made, that’ll be when I look for Carolina to move the ball more effectively featuring their 3-headed monster of QB Cam Newton, RB Jonathan Stewart & TE Greg Olsen.
My bottom line says the Panthers’ defensive front four will generate enough pressure on Manning forcing him into some mistakes down the stretch. MLB Luke Kuechley & Co. know all about the hard-snap counts & will be playing him off instinct instead of trying to crack the Manning audible codes at the line of scrimmage. Since Seattle laid pretty nice defensive blueprints 2 years ago, it’s really hard for me to see a storybook ending for Peyton -something that John Elway enjoyed. Carolina’s offense will get enough points (21 might be enough) by games’ end to grab the win -whether by intermediate drive lengths or short ones set up by their defense.
Hats off to HC Ted Kubiak (he came a long way since starting his NFL life in the 70’s as a Houston Oilers’ ball boy) who should be proud of his group, but the road ends here. To be honest, this isn’t a strong play since there isn’t overwhelming, concrete evidence that there will a Carolina blowout or a Denver outright win.
Let’s go to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California for the smartest play- a play on the Carolina Panthers -215 as my Super Bowl 8 Star Side Selection!February 7, 2016 at 7:14 pm #29987
Sunday PREMIUM lineup***
5-UNITS on Panthers/Broncos UNDER 44 (Super Bowl Best Bet) (6:35 et kickoff on CBS) (# 102)
3-UNITS on Manning UNDER 21′ completions (Best Bet Proposition)
3-UNITS on OVER 7′ in the FIRST QUARTER (Best Bet Proposition)
2-UNITS on Broncos +5′ (Super Bowl side) (6:35 et on CBS) (# 102)
1-UNIT on OVER 9′ (in third quarter) (after Carolina’s other SB produced a scoreless third stanza)
1-UNIT on C.J. Anderson OVER 58′ rush yards (Broncos zone offense blocking favors rushing)
1-UNIT on Demarcus Ware to win MVP (opened 50/1 and has actually dropped at most locations)
1-UNIT on Demaryius Thomas 71-to-80 combined receiving yards at 7/1 (mother “first time” attendee)February 7, 2016 at 7:14 pm #29988
Denver +6February 7, 2016 at 7:14 pm #29989
Denver +6February 7, 2016 at 7:15 pm #29990
1* under at da half and game
Opinion on Denver.February 7, 2016 at 7:15 pm #29991
UNDER 43February 7, 2016 at 7:16 pm #29992
4% Broncos ML +190 and Under 44February 7, 2016 at 7:35 pm #29993
Hello Ladies & Gents
Another fantastic season is in the books, i really like what i do for you guys,,,,,, have fun! and as always thank you very much for your constant support means the world for me.
Sharps (Denver) or Squares (Carolina)?,,,
Main Event is here,,,,
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