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NFL Week 1 Essentials
By Tony MejiaPhiladelphia at Atlanta: Head coach Chip Kelly has handed the keys to his Eagles exclusively to Sam Bradford, so the mission to keep him upright begins. Philly can fly high if he’s healthy and would be grounded by Mark Sanchez if he’s not. Bradford could get a valuable weapon back if TE Zach Ertz is available, while the Falcons have Roddy White attempting to make it back from elbow surgery. Atlanta is also in search of an offensive line combination that can look better than what it showed in preseason, but is certainly cutting it close. New coach Dan Quinn won both home preseason games and wants this one badly.
Minnesota at San Francisco: It’s fitting that we have to wait until this last contest to finally see Adrian Peterson. The Vikings have kept him under wraps and you imagine him locked in a hyperbaric chamber at night, getting those legs ready to rush for 2,500 yards. The NFL’s other new head coach, Jim Tomsula, is also a home underdog opening on a Monday night, but bears no scrutiny since all eyes are on Colin Kaepernick and his expected improvement.
NFL WEEK 1
Eagles @ Falcons– Philly won last six road openers, winning SU as dog last two years; three of their last five were decided by 3 or less points. Under Kelly, Eagles are 9-7 vs spread on road, 11-4 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Falcons won last two vs Philly 35-31/30-17; average total in last three series games is 53.7. Over is 11-5 in Eagle road games under Kelly. Atlanta is 4-10 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less; they’re 9-5 as home dog since ’08. Falcons went 10-22 last two years so they made change on bench; new OC Kyle Shanahan is familiar with Eagles from his days in Washington.
Vikings @ 49ers– Peterson back for Minnesota; he last played in LY’s opener. Lot of changes with 49ers, few for better; they were 44-19-1 under Harbaugh. 11 of 22 starters from LY are gone now. Niners won last four openers and scored 28+ in all four- they’re home underdog for first time since 2011. Home side won 10 of last 11 Viking-Niner games; Minnesota lost eight of last nine visits here; they’re road favorite for first time since ’12, 12-5 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less. Vikings are 4-10 in last 14 road openers, with eight of last 11 staying under total. Since 2007, 49ers are 3-11-3 as an underdog of 3 or less points; 11 of their last 16 home games stayed under total.
Monday Night Football Doubleheader Preview: Eagles at Falcons, Vikings vs 49ers
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5, 55)
The new Sam Bradford Era kicks off in earnest on Monday night when the oft-injured quarterback leads the Philadelphia Eagles into Atlanta to face the Falcons in the season opener. Acquired from St. Louis for fellow QB Sam Foles in the offseason, Bradford isn’t the only highly publicized new face on Chip Kelly’s team, as reigning Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray (1,845 yards, 13 touchdowns) has shuffled over from NFC East rival Dallas to take the place of the departed LeSean McCoy.
Philadelphia allowed free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to head to Kansas City, believing that second-year Jordan Matthews can thrive on the inside while rookie Nelson Agholor can make hay on the outside. Speaking of wide receivers, two-time Pro Bowler Julio Jones reeled in 104 receptions for a franchise-record 1,593 yards last season en route to securing a five-year deal worth $71.25 million in the summer. “We think Julio is an elite receiver in this league, obviously,” Kelly said. “He presents a lot of problems because of his combination of size and speed. Usually guys that are 6-foot-2-plus, 6-3, 220 (pounds) don’t run as fast as Julio.” Matt Ryan (4,694 yards, 28 TDs) will likely look for Jones on many occasions, but his rebuilt offensive line may have a say in whether he has enough time to find him.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Eagles -3. O/U: 55
LINE HISTORY: After opening the Giants as 6-point home favorites, sportsbooks have since moved them to -5. The total opened at 49.5 but has risen to 52 as of this writing.
WEATHER: N/A
INJURY REPORT:
Philadelphia – L. Johnson (probable), K. Alonso (probable), Z. Ertz (questionable), M. Smith (questionable), J. Shepherd (IR).
Atlanta – J. Tamme (probable), J. Matthews (probable), R. White (probable), D. Hester (out), B. Reed (IR), J. Asamoah (IR), T. Howard (IR), C. Mooney (IR), L. Holmes (eligible Week 7).
ABOUT THE EAGLES (2014: 10-6, 2nd, NFC EAST): Philadelphia’s defense also features several new faces as linebacker Kiko Alonso was acquired from Buffalo for McCoy and cornerback Byron Maxwell came over from Seattle. At 6-1, 207 pounds, Maxwell may be the best candidate to press Jones at the line, but he’ll need help over the top to keep the speedy wideout in check. Also new to Philadelphia is Ryan Mathews, who is expected to spell Murray while also platooning with pass-catching Darren Sproles in the backfield.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (2014: 6-10, 3rd, NFC SOUTH): New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will attempt to figure out a backfield in flux as rookie Tevin Coleman has been promoted to starter with Devonta Freeman nursing a nagging hamstring injury. Veteran Roddy White is dealing with a balky knee following a pair of injury-plagued campaigns while Leonard Hankerson replaces the departed Harry Douglas (Tennessee) as the team’s third wideout in a pass-happy offense. Atlanta finished last season second in completions (418), third in attempts (632) and fifth in passing yards (4,553) while its 372 rushing attempts were sixth worst in the league.
TRENDS:
*Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.
*Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
*Eagles are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
*Eagles are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 64 percent of wagers are on the Eagles.
♦♦Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco Giants (+2.5, 41.5)♦♦
Star running back Adrian Peterson is back in the lineup and that alone is reason for optimism for the Minnesota Vikings, who kick off their season with a visit to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. Peterson was limited to only one game last season after charges of child abuse were leveled against him and wound up on the Commissioner’s exempt list.
“You hear the name Adrian Peterson, what do you think? The best running back in the league,” Vikings wide receiver Charles Johnson said. “He’s going to draw a lot of attention.” Perhaps the only positive to come out of Peterson’s absence was the development of rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who lived up to his first-round status over the final month of the season. The 49ers, meanwhile, entered last season as one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl, but they are loaded with uncertainty after switching head coaches and undergoing massive personnel changes. Jim Tomsula takes over for Jim Harbaugh, who returned to his alma mater Michigan, and faces the unenviable task of overhauling a defense that lost four players to retirement to go with the release of star pass rusher Aldon Smith.
TV: 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Vikings -2.5. O/U: 41.5
LINE HISTORY: The pointspread has been on a wild ride in this one, as books are currently dealing San Fran +2.5 after opening them as 4-point faves.
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 69 degree Fahrenheit ballpark at game time.
INJURY REPORT:
Minnesota – M. Pruitt (probable), J. Robinson (out indefinitely), J. Price (eligible Week 3), J. Sullivan (IR), P. Loadholt (IR), C. Matthews (IR).
San Francisco – A. Brooks (probable), T. Smith (probable), J. Simpson (eligible Week 7), K. Hunter (IR), D. Anderson (IR), D. Kilgore (IR), D. Smelter (IR).
ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2014: 7-9, 3rd NFC NORTH): Peterson had scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his first seven seasons and rushed for at least 1,266 yards in six of his first seven campaigns, so he’ll provide Bridgewater with a major weapon. Bridgewater, who completed 72.1 percent of his passes and threw for eight touchdowns versus five interceptions over the final five games, has another deep threat in wideout Mike Wallace and a big red-zone target in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who has missed nearly half his games over the past two seasons. Minnesota’s defense improved as the season went on, holding six of its last 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (2014: 8-8, 3rd NFC WEST): Quarterback Colin Kaepernick finished with 19 touchdown passes versus 10 interceptions while reaching career highs in passing (3,369) and rushing yards (639), but he’ll be without veteran running back Frank Gore. Carlos Hyde is expected to take over in the backfield while Torrey Smith provides blazing speed at wide receiver, but the 49ers could use a return to form by tight end Vernon Davis, who managed only 26 receptions and a career-worst two touchdown catches. The linebacking corps took a hit with the retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland while the losses of Aldon Smith and the retired Justin Smith weaken the pass rush.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of bets are on the Vikes.
Public liking Vikes, Eagles in MNF
Stephen CampbellThe people have spoken, and it appears the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are the public’s favorite plays in Monday Night Football.
Twenty-four hours out from kickoff 64 percent of Covers Consensus users were backing the Eagles to cover the -2.5 spread over the Atlanta Falcons, while 57 percent of bettors are backing the Vikings as 2-point road faves against the San Francisco 49ers at Levis Stadium.
Monday Night Football Picks: Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
by Alan MatthewsAs has been the case for the past few years, we get a Monday night doubleheader on ESPN for Week 1 of the NFL season. None of the four teams involved made the playoffs last year, and I don’t think that either the Minnesota Vikings or San Francisco 49ers, who square off in the nightcap, will in 2015, either.
Thus, we look at the 7 p.m. ET opener between Philadelphia, which I believe wins the NFC East this year, and Atlanta, which almost won the NFC South in 2014 despite a losing record and could well win it in 2015. Of finish 5-11. The Falcons are one of those teams.
I don’t think we can take much from the last time these teams played, a 30-17 home loss by Philly in Week 8 of the 2012 season. That Eagles team was lousy, ending the year losing 11 of its final 12 games and then firing Andy Reid. That led to the hiring of current coach/mad genius Chip Kelly. He has completely overhauled the roster since then. Michael Vick was Philly’s starting QB that day. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan is from Philadelphia.
Eagles at Falcons Betting Story Lines
Where to begin with Kelly’s offseason moves? I don’t think there’s any question that the Eagles now have the best group of running backs in the NFL. Kelly traded away an excellent one in LeSean McCoy, sending him to Buffalo for linebacker Kiko Alonso — this will be his return after missing all of the 2014 season due to an injury. Kelly then turned around and signed not only 2014 rushing king DeMarco Murray of Dallas but also a very good, if injury-prone, tailback in San Diego’s Ryan Mathews. I’d expect about a 70/30 split in carries for those two to keep each fresh/healthy. And the Eagles also have Darren Sproles, one of the best receiving running backs of this century. Strong group.
Kelly’s biggest offseason move was trading incumbent starting QB Nick Foles to St. Louis for QB Sam Bradford. Coming off his own knee issues, Bradford didn’t play much this preseason but looked pretty darn sharp when he did. The Eagles even approached the former Heisman winner about extending his contract as it ends after this season. Those talks have ended. Apparently Bradford’s demands rose after he was 10-for-10 with three touchdown passes in his final preseason game. Bradford is betting he can finally stay healthy a full year and cash in again this offseason. This is his first start in a game that counts since Oct. 20, 2013.
I’m not thrilled with Bradford’s primary receiving options in Jordan Matthews, Riley Cooper and rookie Nelson Agholor as Kelly let Jeremy Maclin leave as a free agent. Tight end Zach Ertz should play Monday after missing the entire preseason. This system is so QB friendly and similar to what Bradford ran at Oklahoma, I think he succeeds.
Atlanta pulled the plug on Coach Mike Smith following a 6-10 season last year that concluded with an embarrassing home blowout in the NFC South winner-take-all game against Carolina. The Falcons have some fine offensive pieces in Ryan and Top 5 receiver Julio Jones, so they opted for a defensive mind to replace Smith in former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. He probably had a shot at a few other openings but preferred the Falcons because a franchise QB is in place. Smart move.
The Falcons will give third-round rookie running back Tevin Coleman the start on Monday night because projected No. 1 Devonta Freeman is still dealing with hamstring injuries. He didn’t take a single snap of game action in the preseason. Coleman rushed eight times for 56 yards in the preseason finale against Baltimore.
The Atlanta offensive line hasn’t been very good the past two years and now adjusts to a zone-blocking scheme under new coordinator Kyle Shanahan. There will be at least two new starters as the club recently traded for guard Andy Levitre and released projected center Joe Hawley. Starting left tackle Jake Matthews missed the end of the preseason with a back strain, but he’s good to go.
Eagles at Falcons Monday Night Football Betting Odds and Trends
The Eagles are 2.5-point favorites (-130) and -155 on the moneyline. The total is 55. Just one alternate line thus far, Philly at -3 (-105). The Eagles were 4-4 against the spread on the road last year and 5-3 “over/under.” Atlanta was 4-4 ATS at home and 4-4 O/U.
The Eagles are 5-5 ATS in their past 10 as a road favorite. They are 5-2 ATS in their past seven Week 1 games. The Falcons are 6-4 ATS in their past 10 as a home dog. They are 5-2 in their past seven vs. the NFC. The over has hit in seven of Eagles’ past 10 at NFC South teams. It is 4-0 in Philly’s past four on Monday. The O/U is 4-6 in Falcons’ past 10 at home vs. NFC East clubs. The over is 6-1 in their past seven September games.
Monday Night Football Picks: Eagles at Falcons Betting Predictions
I never got caught up in all the Tim Tebow stuff, but I do wish he had made the Eagles’ roster just to see if Kelly might use him on a 2-point conversion instead of kicking the new, longer PAT. Instead, the team opted to keep former University of Miami QB Stephen Morris, who has done zero in the NFL, as the No. 3 behind Mark Sanchez.
I’m sure Atlanta’s defense will be better simply because of Quinn, and getting all offseason to prepare for this up-tempo Eagles offense can only help. Still, the Falcons’ O-Line and backfield are big question marks. Philly is simply more talented, barring Bradford getting hurt. Give the 2.5 and go over the total.
High-powered Eagles and Falcons meet Monday
By: Bo ChapmanPHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-0) at ATLANTA FALCONS (0-0)
Kickoff: Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 55Chip Kelly and his new look offense head down to Georgia Monday night to take on Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the high flying Falcons.
In just two seasons, Kelly took an offense that ranked 29th in scoring and 15th in yards to consecutive top-5 finishes in both categories with essentially the same parts. Now he has some new toys to play with, swapping Nick Foles for QB Sam Bradford, moving LeSean McCoy to Buffalo and replacing him with 2014 rushing champion RB DeMarco Murray and former Chargers first-round pick RB Ryan Matthews. Monday night we will see what Kelly’s offense can truly do with the pieces that he wants (No. 1 offense in preseason). The Eagles have been a Monday night juggernaut in the past, going 15-5 ATS on MNF since 1992. The departure of wideout Jeremy Maclin to Kansas City was addressed with the drafting of USC standout WR Nelson Agholor 20th overall to line up opposite second-year WR Jordan Matthews. Agholor joins a group of 18 former Pac-12 players on the Eagles roster, which includes seven former Oregon Ducks, perhaps giving Kelly a leg up on teaching his system since they’re already familiar, if not well-versed. Philly’s diversity in the run game bodes well for bettors as the Eagles are 50-18 ATS since 1992 when rushing for 125-to-150 yards and they’re 63-34 ATS when racking up 400+ total yards. For the Falcons, it is a change at the top that they hope will turn things around. Mike Smith’s tenure ended with a thud after back-to-back dismal seasons in which his defense finished in the bottom five in scoring both years. The 2012 Falcons had the best record in the league at 13-3 and ranked fifth in scoring defense, but followed with 4-12 and 6-10 seasons, and last year’s team had the worst defense in the NFL. Former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is the new head coach and hopes are high that he’ll return Atlanta to the top of a wide-open NFC South division. Atlanta has had trouble with Philly over the years though, as the Eagles are 10-4 ATS in this matchup since 1992.
Both defenses will have their hands full Monday night. The Falcons gave up a league-high 21 rushing TD last season and Murray tied Marshawn Lynch for the NFL lead with 13 scores on the ground. Atlanta allowed only eight yards per game more than Philly last season, but the Eagles defense forced 24 fumbles (most in league) and allowed only 3.7 yards per carry (tied for 4th-fewest) while Atlanta forced only 13 fumbles and surrendered 4.2 yards per carry on the year. Atlanta added some quality defenders this offseason in former Bucs first-round pick DE Adrian Clayborn, drafted LB Vic Beasley with the eighth overall pick, and took CB Jalen Collins from LSU in the second round. Atlanta used every pick on defense in 2015 with the exception of Coleman and East Carolina WR Justin Hardy, meaning that new defensive coordinator Richard Smith (former Broncos LB coach) will have a lot of new pieces to his defensive puzzle. The Eagles defense should be a formidable unit in 2015 with the addition of former All-Pro LB Kiko Alonso in the LeSean McCoy trade plus five 2015 draft picks. Alonso is coming off a major knee injury that took his entire 2014 season, but in his rookie year of 2013, Alonso was third in the league with 159 tackles and tied with defensive MVP Luke Kuechly for the most interceptions by a middle linebacker (4). He’ll fit in well with an opportunistic Philly defense that last season led the NFC with 49 sacks, led the NFL with four defensive touchdowns and finished third with 28 takeaways.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan will need some help from the running game in order to right the ship, but his Falcons have been among the bottom-10 rushing teams in the league for three years in a row, including dead last in 2013. Rookie RB Tevin Coleman out of Indiana University will look to be the workhorse with support from second-year RB Devonta Freeman. Keeping the ball away from Kelly’s offense may be the only way to slow them down, so a big debut from Coleman could go a long way towards success. When Atlanta totals 350-to-400 yards of offense since 1992, the club is 57-31 ATS. Ryan will have his usual cast of talented receivers available with veteran WR Roddy White probable for Week 1, but Ryan is just 1-6 SU on Monday Night Football in his career. Top WR Julio Jones is coming off a career year in which he led all NFC pass catchers with 1,593 yards and 104 receptions. Jones was one of four players league-wide to eclipse the 100-catch mark and his career average of 88.4 receiving yards per game is the highest mark in NFL history. Ryan and the Falcons have lost the last two meetings with Philly, and in four career matchups he is 2-2. His completion percentage of 59.4% against the Eagles defense is his worst career mark against any NFC opponent.
Falcons, Eagles must limit damage from opposing QBs
Stephen CampbellWhen the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles collide in Monday Night Football, both sides will be seeking to shore up their respective defenses when it comes to limiting the damage from the opposing men under center.
Last season, Atlanta (279.9) and Philly (264.9) allowed the most passing yards per contest in the entire league. Sportsbooks initially opened the total for the matchup at 49.5 but have since hiked that up to 52.
The Eagles are currently 21/2-point favorites at most shops.
MNF Doubleheader
By Kevin RogersEagles (-3, 56) at Falcons – 7:10 PM EST – ESPN
Philadelphia opened up as a 1 ½-point road favorite when the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino SuperBook (LVH) released lines for Week 1 back in April. After an impressive preseason effort, the Eagles have been boosted up to a three-point favorite at most books, as Chip Kelly’s squad is expected to do big things in the NFC with his explosive offense. However, traveling to the loud Georgia Dome to take on a Falcons’ squad who missed the playoffs last season won’t be an easy task for Philadelphia.
The Eagles topped the 36-point mark in each of their first three preseason victories, as Sam Bradford threw three touchdown passes in the dress rehearsal win at Green Bay. There are plenty of new faces on the Philadelphia offense with Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, and Jeremy Maclin out of town, as Bradford and DeMarco Murray look to keep up the offensive prowess under Kelly.
The Falcons begin the Dan Quinn era following back-to-back losing campaigns, including a 6-10 mark in 2014. Quinn comes over from Seattle where he spent the last two seasons as defensive coordinator, helping the Seahawks win consecutive conference championships. The Falcons allowed at least 27 points in eight games last season, while this club put together a dreadful 1-9 record outside of NFC South play.
Atlanta has been automatic in home openers since Matt Ryan took over at quarterback in 2008, posting a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS record, including a 37-34 overtime triumph against New Orleans as a three-point underdog in 2014. The Falcons took a step back at home last season, losing four of their final five games at the Georgia Dome after early victories over the Saints and Buccaneers. Since 2008, the Falcons have struggled in Monday night contests, compiling a 1-6 SU and 4-3 ATS record with three of those covers coming as double-digit underdogs.
Philadelphia is making its first trip to Atlanta since 2011, when the Falcons outlasted the Eagles, 35-31 as 2 ½-point underdogs in Week 2. Kelly didn’t face the Falcons in his first two seasons as head coach of the Eagles, while going 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite in 2014 with the lone win coming at Houston. The Eagles have performed well on Monday nights in Kelly’s short tenure, winning in all three tries since 2013, including an opening night victory two seasons ago at Washington.
Vikings (-2 ½, 41 ½) at 49ers – 10:20 PM EST – ESPN
Minnesota ventures out west after wrapping up 2014 by covering eight of its final 10 games. The Vikings fell short of the playoffs for the second straight season at 7-9, but get back Adrian Peterson in the backfield after missing all but one game in 2014 due to disciplinary reasons. Now, the Vikings look to capitalize on a solid 4-1 SU/ATS record in the preseason, heading to battle a rebuilding San Francisco squad.
The 49ers have moved on from Jim Harbaugh as former defensive line coach Jim Tomsula was promoted in January to head coach. San Francisco hit the skids following three straight trips to the NFC title game from 2011-13 with a subpar 8-8 record in 2014, which was capped off by a 1-4 finish and Harbaugh’s dismissal. The home-field advantage at brand new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara was anything but as the Niners went 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS, all in the favorite role.
Now, San Francisco will be listed as an underdog at Levi’s Stadium for the first time, while Minnesota is laying points on the road for the first time since 2012. In fact, the Vikings last covered as away ‘chalk’ back in 2010 at Washington, posting an 0-3 SU/ATS record since that ATS win. Minnesota cashed four of its final five games away from TCF Bank Stadium last season as an underdog, but the Vikings lost their last three road games at Chicago, Detroit, and Miami.
These two teams are hooking up for the first time since 2012, as the Vikings knocked off the 49ers at the Metrodome, 24-13 as 6 ½-point underdogs. Minnesota is making its first trip to the Bay Area since 2007 when the Vikings destroyed the Niners, 27-7 as eight-point favorites. The Vikings have lost five straight Monday night games dating back to 2009, while the 49ers are riding a seven-game winning streak in Monday action since 2010.
Looking ahead to Week 2:
— Road favorites took care of business on Sunday, posting a solid 5-2 SU/ATS record as the Bills and Rams were the only two home underdogs to win and cash.
— There are currently four teams listed as away favorites in Week 2 according to Sportsbook.
Patriots (-1.5) at Bills
Cardinals (-2.5) at Bears
Rams (-3.5) at Redskins
Dolphins (-6.5) at Jaguars— The highest total on the board should come as no surprise, sitting at 49 in the NFC Championship rematch between the Seahawks and Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday night.
Favorites and over dominate the first Sunday of season
Andrew CaleyFavorites and the over were the dominant bets to cash on the first Sunday of the NFL season, both going 9-4 in the 13 games played yesterday.
That means both were cashing at a rate of 69.23 percent.
There is a Monday night doubleheader to close out Week 1, with Philadelphia 3-point favorites at Atlanta with a total of 55 and Minnesota a 2-point favorite at San Francisco with a total of 41.5.
Chance of rain at Levi’s Stadium Monday night
Andrew CaleyThere is a slight 17 percent chance of rain for the second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara California where the San Francisco 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings.
There will also be a slight six mile per hour wind blowing towards the north end zone during the game, where the Niners are currently 2-point home dogs with a total sitting at 41.5.
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