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NFL Week 17 • "Football Super Sunday! • 1/3/16

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  • #23960

    admin
    Keymaster

    Betting Recap – Week 17
    By Daniel Dobish

    Overall Notes

    NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 16 RESULTS

    Wager Favorites-Underdogs
    Straight Up 8-8
    Against the Spread 5-11

    Wager Home-Away
    Straight Up 9-7
    Against the Spread 6-10

    Wager Totals (O/U)
    Over-Under 5-11

    The largest underdogs to win straight up
    Dolphins (+10, ML+350) vs. Patriots, 20-10
    Saints (+6, ML +215) at Falcons, 20-17
    Seahawks (+6, ML +200) at Cardinals, 36-6

    The largest favorites to cover

    Panthers (-10) vs. Buccaneers, 38-10
    Steelers (-13) at Browns, 28-12
    Texans (-6) vs. Jaguars, 30-6

    Feeling Minnesota

    — The Minnesota Vikings hit the road and took out the Green Bay Packers by a 20-13 score to steal the NFC North Division title from the Pack and send them on the road for the wild-card round of the playoffs next weekend. The Vikings, who opened as a seven-point underdog against the Seattle Seahawks for their playoff game next Sunday, have covered four in a row, and they’re 13-2 ATS over the past 15 games. One of those rare non-covers was a home game Dec. 6 against Seattle, a 38-7 loss as a three-point ‘dog.

    Houston Might Have a Problem

    — The Houston Texans were crowned AFC South Division champions after thrashing the Jacksonville Jaguars by 30-6 count. They will meet the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild-card game Saturday. The Texans have won and covered three straight heading into Saturday’s game, and they’re 4-1 SU/ATS over their past five home games. These teams met in Week 1, as the Chiefs came away with a 27-20 victory. The Chiefs opened as a 2 1/2-point favorite. K.C. is on a 10-game winning streak, and they’re 7-3 ATS during the impressive span.

    Total Recall

    — The ‘under’ cashed in 11 of 16 games in the final weekend of the regular season. Both AFC East games went ‘under’, as did both contests in the AFC North. The AFC South and West each split 1-1. The NFC East was the exception, as the ‘over’ hit in both of their games. The totals split 1-1 in the NFC South, while the NFC North and West each saw the ‘under’ finish 2-0.

    The Vikings snapped a two-game ‘over’ streak, and the ‘under’ finished 11-4-1 in the regular season. One of those ‘over’ results came against the Seahawks, next weekend’s opponent in the wild-card round.

    — The ‘over’ cashed in the Week 17 game for the Carolina Panthers, and it ended up 10-5-1 during the regular season. The Panthers have a bye for the first-round of the playoffs and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Carolina went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS at home, and the ‘over’ was 5-2-1 at Bank of America Stadium.

    — The highest total on the board as the New Orleans-Atlanta game (53.5), and the ‘over’ was never threatened in the 20-17 Saints victory. The second-highest total on the board, also between non-playoff teams, was the Philadelphia-N.Y. Giants game. That easily ended up ‘over’.

    — The two games with the lowest totals on the board also involved non-playoff teams. The Tennessee-Indianapolis game (39) went ‘over’, while the St. Louis-San Francisco game (39) easily went ‘under’ despite going to overtime.

    — The ‘under’ went 1-0 in the only primetime games in Week 17. Officially, the ‘over’ is 20-28-1 (41.7%) through 49 games under the lights. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

    Injury Report

    — Redskins WR DeSean Jackson (knee) rested his knee for the regular season finale against the Cowboys. TE Jordan Reed (shoulder) was also forced out, and both will be important injuries to watch heading into their wild-card game Sunday afternoon against the Packers.

    — Steelers RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) was forced out of the regular season finale in Cleveland due to a right ankle injury and his status for the wild-card game in Cincinnati next weekend is uncertain at this point.

    — Texans WR Nate Washington (hip) left the game in Week 17 due to a bad hip. He joined WR Cecil Shorts III (hamstring) on the shelf. The Texans could be a little nicked up at the receiver position heading into their wild-card game against the Chiefs next Saturday.

    Looking Ahead

    — The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their past four road games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. However, they are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games against teams with a winning home record, and 0-6 ATS in their past six playoff games. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall. They’re also 6-2 ATS in their past eight against AFC foes. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Houston, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. Kansas City opened as a 3 1/2-point road favorite.

    — The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road games, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 playoff games. They’re also 12-4 ATS in their past 16 against teams with an overall winning record. More importantly, the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with the Bengals, and 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 trips to Cincinnati. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record, and 12-3-1 ATS in 16 games this season. However, they’re 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games in the month of January, and 0-6 ATS in their past six playoff games. The Bengals opened as 2 1/2-point underdogs at home.

    — The Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six road outings. They’re also 18-7-1 ATS in their past 26 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff home games, and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 at home. The Vikings opened as seven-point underdogs.

    — The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff road games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 playoff games overall. They’re also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 road outings, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall record. The Redskins have covered four in a row, and they’re 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games. Green Bay is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the favorite and home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The Redskins opened as two-point favorites.

    #24015

    admin
    Keymaster

    Books close Week 17 on top
    By Micah Roberts

    The New Year started off with a bang for bettors in Las Vegas as all five college football favorites won and covered on January 1, 2016.

    The effects of those bowl favorites all coming didn’t just end on Friday because live parlays were waiting to pop in all the ensuing games on Saturday and Sunday.

    Fortunately for the sports books they got some relief in Sunday’s NFL action as popular choices such as the Jets and Patriots lost outright which helped them to a small win on the day.

    The losses from Friday weren’t built up just from Friday alone. There was major parlay card liability leftover from a disastrous NFL Week 15 where the sports books lost close to $7 million. Friday’s losses didn’t come close to that, but they were much more than it should have been just because of still paying out on 2015 results.

    All 32 NFL teams played on Sunday in Week 17 action and the sports books had to play a cautious approach with several of the games just because several teams would be resting starters in preparation for the playoffs.

    They got a late Christmas present with all that risk leftover from 2015 and January 1 with the popular favorites going 5-11 against-the-spread with eight of the underdogs winning outright, which killed the bulk of the teaser risk.

    The “root game” that the majority of bettors seemed to have collectively that helped the books out on Sunday was New England losing 20-10 at Miami.

    The Patriots were 10-point favorites and had plenty of incentive to win because home field throughout the playoffs was stake. The Dolphins hadn’t covered a spread in its previous six games, but came up with its third straight win over the Patriots at home.

    Denver’s 27-20 win at home over the Chargers didn’t get the cover (-9) for favorite bettors, but the win did secure Denver home field throughout the playoffs following the Patriots loss.

    The big issue for Denver and first year coach Gary Kubiak is who to start at quarterback in two weeks. Peyton Manning came in to the game in the second-half after the team committed five turnovers behind Brock Osweiler and then everyone responded right away with sort of an adrenaline rush. The running game was a surprising strength with Manning in the game and it carried them to a win.

    The other big game Sunday the public loved was the Jets laying 3-points at Buffalo in a situation where the Jets just needed a win to make the playoffs.

    William Hill books had 72 percent of their action on the game on the Jets. And why not bet the Jets since they had won its previous five games (4-0-1 ATS) and looked polished. But Buffalo would played an inspired game and win 22-17 giving coach Rex Ryan a bit of revenge on his former team. The Bills have now beaten the Jets in their last five encounters.

    While the Jets were getting beat, the Steelers (-12.5) were taking care of business at Cleveland in a 28-12 win which catapulted them into the playoffs. It was one of the few popular favorites to cover on the day for bettors, but they didn’t have any other teams linked up in parlays or teasers to hurt the books.

    Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point road favorite at Cincinnati in Saturday’s Wild Card game. The two teams split the season series, but Pittsburgh won 33-20 four weeks ago while knocking out QB Andy Dalton for the season.

    The Bengals have lost its first game in the playoffs the last four seasons. Wouldn’t that be something if the back-up quarterback A.J. McCarron came away with Marvin Lewis’ first playoff win.

    The Chiefs won its 10th straight game in a 23-17 win against the Raiders and have a date Saturday at Houston in a Wild Card game where they are 3-point road favorites. The Chiefs won 27-20 at Houston in the season opener and then proceeded to lose its next five games. They haven’t lost since.

    The Seahawks buried the Cardinals 36-6 in a game where the Cardinals saw the writing on the wall as the Panthers were securing home field through in a win against the Buccaneers. The Cardinals could have had home field with a win and a Panthers loss.

    Seattle is a 5.5-point road favorite at Minnesota in Sunday’s Wild Card game. These two teams met at Minnesota last month and Seattle crushed them 38-7. However, the Vikings appear to be getting better each in and have won and covered three straight.

    On Sunday they won at Green Bay 20-13 as 3-point underdogs to secure the NFC North and a home playoff date. Minnesota has gone an NFL-best 13-3 ATS this season.

    The only home favorite in this weekend’s Wild Card action is Washington -1 against the Packers. After going through the first 12 games of the season winning one and losing one back and forth, the Redskins have now reeled off four straight wins and covers with all four games going OVER the total. They are peaking at the right time while no one knows what’s going on with the Jekyll and Hyde Packers

    Micah Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 11 years.

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