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NFL Week 3 – Previews, Articles, Info. Monday Night Football 9/28/15

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  • #5058
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    NFL Week 3 Essentials
    By Tony Mejia

    Underdogs barked loudly in the second week of the NFL season, winning outright in 10 of the 16 games. Johnny Manziel was a winner. The Bucs, who were 2-14 last season, handed New Orleans its sixth consecutive Superdome loss as Jameis Winston won for the first time. To say it was a puzzling week would be an understatement. Let’s look ahead to Week 3:

    Kansas City at Green Bay: QB Aaron Rodgers will try and extend an NFL-record interception-less streak at home to 19 games against a Chiefs secondary that will look to succeed where the decimated Legion of Boom failed. Despite the absence of top target Jordy Nelson, Rodgers continues to fire on all cylinders, but faces an improved KC defense fortified by emerging rookie corner Marcus Peters. Sack master Justin Houston gets to work against a vulnerable Packers offensive line, which makes this Monday night game very interesting.

    #5461
    admin
    Keymaster

    Tech Trends – Week 3

    KANSAS CITY at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
    Andy is 5-3 as visiting dog past two years, 7-4 overall as dog. KC also “over” first two in 2015. Pack 7-1-1 as reg seas home chalk since LY and “over” 21-12 at Lambeau regular season since 2011.

    Tech Edge: “Over,” based on Pack “totals” trends.

    #5783
    admin
    Keymaster

    Preview: Kansas City at Green Bay

    When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, September 28, 2015
    Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

    After absorbing a crushing last-second home loss to future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs must try to bounce back against arguably the NFL’s best quarterback at one of the league’s toughest venues. Awaiting the Chiefs on Monday night are Aaron Rodgers and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have won nine in a row at Lambeau Field.

    “We have a home-field advantage that’s growing,” Rodgers said. “We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.” Green Bay must avoid an emotional letdown after scoring 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock off the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 last Sunday. Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. “It was pretty simple,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. … We’ll feel this one.”

    TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Packers -6.5. O/U: 49

    ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-1): Charles had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries but it went for naught after his second lost fumble of the game snatched a victory away from Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Quarterback Alex Smith followed up a strong opener with two interceptions against Denver and has yet to establish much of a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who had nine catches for 109 yards in the first two games. The Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks and must try to exploit the absence of offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second game in a row.

    ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-0): Rodgers lost his top target when wideout Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and saw Eddie Lacy exit last week’s game with an ankle injury, but the starting running back returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and would not rule out playing. James Starks fills in admirably for Lacy, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries against Seattle and may need another big effort with wide receiver Davante Adams also questionable with an ankle injury. Rodgers has averaged only 219 yards passing in the first two games but has five scoring passes versus zero interceptions.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. The Chiefs have won six of the last seven meetings, including a 19-14 victory in 2011 that ended Green Bay’s perfect 13-0 start to the season.

    2. Rodgers does not have an interception over 545 attempts in last 18 home games (playoffs included), throwing 43 TDs passes in that span.

    3. Chiefs LB Justin Houston had two sacks last week, giving him 18 in the past 12 games.

    PREDICTION: Packers 27, Chiefs 16

    #5784
    admin
    Keymaster

    NEWSLETTER NFL Football Prediction From Allen Eastman

    Take #489 Kansas City (+7) over Green Bay (8:30 p.m., Monday, Sept. 28)
    I think that this is just too many points for Green Bay to lay out. They may be without Eddie Lacy. And the Packers may have a letdown after their big Sunday Night Football win over Seattle last week. Kansas City is coming off a tough loss to Denver last Thursday. But they were the better team in that game. And they have had a few extra days to get prepared for Aaron Rodgers and the Pack. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on Monday Night Football while the Packers are just 1-4 ATS. Green Bay has been great at home (34-16 ATS), but now the books have gone too far. The value here is with the underdogs, and I think that Kansas City wants to make up for that Thursday night defeat. Take the points.

    #5964
    admin
    Keymaster

    2015 NFL – Week 3

    Chiefs (1-1) @ Packers (2-0)— Green Bay scored 29 ppg in winning first two tilts; they’re 10-21 on third down, and scored 10+ points in all four halves. Packers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite, 15-8-1 last 23 non-divisional home games. Chiefs had three extra days to prep after giving up two TDs in last 0:45 of bitter home loss to Denver. KC is 7-3 as road dog under Reid, a former Packer assistant; Chiefs won last three visits to Lambeau- they’re 7-3-1 overall in series. Under is 23-16-1 in KC’ last 40 road games. Lacy hurt foot last week; Pack still ran for 127 yards- they won first two games despite trailing both in 2nd half.

    #5965
    admin
    Keymaster

    Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Chiefs at Packers

    Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 49)

    After absorbing a crushing last-second home loss to future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, the Kansas City Chiefs must try to bounce back against arguably the NFL’s best quarterback at one of the league’s toughest venues. Awaiting the Chiefs on Monday night are Aaron Rodgers and the unbeaten Green Bay Packers, who have won nine in a row at Lambeau Field.

    “We have a home-field advantage that’s growing,” Rodgers said. “We’ve started fast as well at home the last couple of years, so we’ve been able to make teams one-dimensional on the other side.” Green Bay must avoid an emotional letdown after scoring 11 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to knock off the Seattle Seahawks 27-17 last Sunday. Kansas City was on the verge of a 2-0 start before allowing a pair of touchdowns nine seconds apart in the final minute, with the game-winner coming on the return of a fumble by Jamaal Charles. “It was pretty simple,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Five turnovers and 70 yards on penalties. … We’ll feel this one.”

    TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

    LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Pack as 6.5-point home faves. The total is up to 49 from the opening 48.

    INJURY REPORT:

    Chiefs – DB Sean Smith (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

    Packers – WR Davante Adams (Probable, ankle), RB Eddie Lacy (Questionable, ankle), T Bryan Bulaga (Early November, knee), DT Letroy Guion (Eligible Week 4, suspension).

    WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 53 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the south end zone at around five miles per hour.

    POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-2.5) + Packers (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -5.5

    WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “KC was in position to win and cover against Denver despite a -3 turnover margin, but the final Jamaal Charles fumble doomed their chance to go 2-0. Relatively conservative head coach Mike McCarthy, facing nemesis Seattle in an early season statement game still chose to punt or kick on 4th and 1 on three separate occasions.” Teddy Covers.

    ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Charles had a big game with 125 yards on 21 carries but it went for naught after his second lost fumble of the game snatched a victory away from Kansas City, which has gone 18 consecutive games without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. Quarterback Alex Smith followed up a strong opener with two interceptions against Denver and has yet to establish much of a rapport with Jeremy Maclin, who had nine catches for 109 yards in the first two games. The Chiefs are tied for second in the league with eight sacks and must try to exploit the absence of offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, who will miss his second game in a row.

    ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Rodgers lost his top target when wideout Jordy Nelson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and saw Eddie Lacy exit last week’s game with an ankle injury, but the starting running back returned to practice on a limited basis Friday and would not rule out playing. James Starks fills in admirably for Lacy, rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries against Seattle and may need another big effort with wide receiver Davante Adams also questionable with an ankle injury. Rodgers has averaged only 219 yards passing in the first two games but has five scoring passes versus zero interceptions.

    TRENDS:

    * Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

    * Over is 8-2 in Packers last 10 games in September.

    * Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in Week 3.

    * Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last six Monday games.

    CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent of bettors are backing the Packers.

    #5966
    admin
    Keymaster

    MNF – Chiefs at Packers
    By Kevin Rogers

    Only six teams own a 3-0 record after three weeks of action in the NFL, as the Packers look to join that group with a victory over the Chiefs on Monday night. Green Bay hasn’t started 3-0 since 2011, when Mike McCarthy’s club stormed out of the gate with 13 consecutive wins. Kansas City is playing with plenty of rest after last taking the field 11 days ago, but suffered a crushing home loss to its division rival.

    The Chiefs (1-1 straight-up, 1-1 against the spread) cruised past the Texans in Week 1 on the road, setting up a pivotal primetime spot against the rival Broncos. Kansas City jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Denver last Thursday night, trying to snap a six-game losing streak to Denver dating back to Peyton Manning’s arrival in 2012. Manning rallied the Broncos back to tie things up at 24-24 late in the fourth quarter, but Denver shocked Kansas City by returning a Jamaal Charles fumble for a touchdown in the final minute to pull out a 31-24 triumph as three-point underdogs.

    Charles racked up 125 yards and a touchdown run, but a critical fumble inside the Denver 10-yard line in the first quarter stymied Kansas City’s first drive, while the second fumble basically lost the game for the Chiefs. The normally cautious Alex Smith was intercepted twice, as the Chiefs turned the ball over five times, while dropping to 0-5 ATS in their last five home openers.

    The Packers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) picked up a modicum of revenge last Sunday night, knocking off the Seahawks in an NFC Championship rematch, 27-17 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Green Bay took a 13-3 halftime lead, but Seattle came back to capture a 17-16 advantage in the third quarter. Mason Crosby drilled a pair of field goals in the final quarter, while Aaron Rodgers hooked up with tight end Richard Rodgers for a five-yard score to give Green Bay the lead for good.

    Rodgers threw for 249 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but running back Eddie Lacy left the game after suffering a sprained right ankle while carrying the ball three times for nine yards. Lacy’s status is up in the air for Monday night, but back-up James Starks picked up the slack by rushing for 95 yards on 20 carries. Green Bay picked up its 10th straight win at Lambeau Field, while improving to 7-2-1 ATS in this span at home.

    The last time these teams hooked up came back in 2011 when the Packers began the season at 13-0. However, Green Bay went into Arrowhead Stadium in December of that season and lost its only game of the regular season, 19-14 as hefty 11 ½-point favorites. Ryan Succop kicked four field goals for the Chiefs, while Kyle Orton led Kansas City to only its sixth victory of 2011 (the Chiefs finished 7-9). The Chiefs are making only their second trip to Lambeau Field since 1991, as Kansas City outlasted Green Bay in overtime, 40-34 in 2003.

    The Packers are making their only appearance on Monday night football this season in Week 3, as Green Bay has played under the Monday night lights exactly once in each of the previous five seasons. In 2014, the Packers held off the Falcons as 13 ½-point favorites, 43-37, as Green Bay is 0-3 ATS the last three tries on Monday night football.

    The Chiefs own a solid 6-3 ATS record under Andy Reid as a road underdog since 2013, while putting together one of the top performances last season under the Monday night lights. Kansas City destroyed New England as a three-point home underdog in Week 4 of 2014 by a 41-14 count, as the Chiefs have covered four of their last five Monday games since 2010.

    The underdogs have dominated through the first two weeks on Monday nights, compiling a 3-0 SU/ATS record. The Jets were the latest ‘dog to cash on a Monday, beating the Colts last week, 20-7 receiving seven points. Not only have the underdogs been successful, but the ‘under’ is a perfect 3-0 with 27 combined points or less scored in two of the three Monday night games.

    The ‘over’ cashed in nine of 14 games in Week 3, while four teams scored at least 39 points in victories (Falcons, Patriots, Cardinals, and Bills). Out of those four squads, Atlanta, New England, and Arizona are part of the six teams that exist in the 3-0 group after three weeks.

    The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites, as that number is hovering between 6 ½ and 7 at most sportsbooks. The total is set at 49, as Green Bay is 4-2 to the ‘over’ in its last six home games with a total of 49 or higher. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

    #5989
    admin
    Keymaster

    Six teams still perfect against the spread
    Andrew Caley

    There are still six NFL teams with a perfect record against the spread with just one game remaining in the Week 3 schedule.

    Arizona Cardinals

    Atlanta Falcons

    Cincinnati Bengals

    Denver Broncos

    Pittsburgh Steelers

    All 3-0 ATS through three weeks.

    The Green Bay Packers are 2-0 ATS and can move to 3-0 if they are able to cover against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Green Bay is currently a 6-point home favorite.

    #5990
    admin
    Keymaster

    Four teams still winless against the spread
    Andrew Caley

    It’s been a tough start to the season if you have been blindly backing the Ravens, Bears, Lions or Colts, with all three going 0-3 against the spread through three weeks.

    In Week 4
    Colts (-8.5 vs. Jacksonville)
    Ravens (-3 at Pittsburgh) will be favorites,

    Bears (+2.5 vs. Oakland)
    Lions (+9.5 at Seattle) will be dogs.

    #5996
    admin
    Keymaster

    WINNING POINTS

    Green Bay over Kansas City by 10 (Monday) Ordinarily Green Bay might experience a letdown after getting revenge on Seattle this past Sunday night. Fortunately for the Packers they stay at home to play on Monday night where you can’t help but be motivated especially since this is a going to be a special occasion at Lambeau Field celebrating the Packers’ Super Bowl I vic-tory over Kansas City. The extra day may make a difference for injured Eddie Lacy. The Chiefs were out-yarded by winless Houston in their opener and last Thursday blew a lead to Denver in a home loss. They have the pass rushers, however, to bother Aaron Rodgers and they can play ball control if they ride Jamaal Charles. GREEN BAY 31-21

    #5997
    admin
    Keymaster

    SPORTS REPORTER

    Here’s another case where Andy Reid’s long-term diffculties with the leagues’ Park Place/Boardwalk properties may continue to give the veteran head man indigestion during his journey on Kansas City’s B-B-Q circuit. The Chiefs’ primary hopes lay in combining a superlative defensive effort, with pinpoint-passing by Alex Smith, and clock-control rushing by Jamaal Charles. This might work for a stretch, but given Aaron Rodgers’ incredible TD/interception ratio at Lambeau Field, it’s hard to imagine that Pack will allow Smith an infinite number of chances to move the chains and eat clock. One thing that’s required for the Reid/Smith Master Plan to work is an early score advantage – which figures to prove exceedingly-difficult to come by, in this environment, given that Rodgers hasn’t tossed a pick at Lambeau since 12/12/12. It is possible for the Chiefs to hang in for the full three hours, if they play error-free and Charles can play keepaway from Rodgers. But should you count on that, you’re presuming a great deal.
    GREEN BAY, 27-17.

    #5998
    admin
    Keymaster

    GOLD SHEET

    GREEN BAY 27 – Kansas City 16 — The proud Chiefs apparently hold grudges a long time, as they have gone 7-2-1 straight up vs. the Packers ever since losing Super Bowl I to Bart Starr & Co. at the L.A. Coliseum. (Hey, Kansas City. Hatred is a negative emotion!) But even with G.B. absorbing a couple more injuries last week (check status of RB Eddie Lacy, WR Davante Adams), it’s hardto go against the Pack as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, as he hasn’t thrown an interception at Lambeau since 2012. They’re 6-2 vs. the number their last eight regular-season games at home. And Mike McCarthy continues to get good performances from new sources, such as second-year TE Richard Rodgers,rookie WR Ty Montgomery, and the recently re-signed WR James Jones.

    #5999
    admin
    Keymaster

    PLAYBOOK

    GREEN BAY over Kansas City by 13
    The Packers got what they wanted last Sunday night – a major payback against the Seahawks on prime-time television. So the questions begs… is a letdown in order or do they stamp themselves as the team to beat in this year’s Super Bowl chase? You decide. This much we know for sure, head coach Mike McCarthy is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS home in games off a win versus a non-division opponent off a loss, including 9-1 ATS as a favor-ite of less than 13 points. And the Cheeseheads are 11-2 ATS when seek-ing revenge against AFC opponents. And then there is the Chiefs’ crummy 1-6 ATS mark in Monday Night games when playing off a SU favorite loss. Granted, Andy Reid is a stellar 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS under the Monday Night lights, but all of those results – sans one – were with Philadelphia.

    #6000
    admin
    Keymaster

    Monday Night Football Picks: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers Odds
    by Alan Matthews

    Have you seen the college football and NFL schedules this week? They both leave a lot to be desired. Thus, I would argue that Monday night’s matchup between Kansas City and Green Bay is the best of the NFL games in Week 3. Yes, I know Falcons-Cowboys features a pair of 2-0 teams, and I previewed that here at Doc’s, but that game isn’t all that great with Brandon Weeden starting for Dallas at QB.

    I am interested to see how both the Chiefs and Packers play here. Kansas City (1-1) comes off probably the most crushing loss of the early season for any team. But that was on Thursday in Week 2, so the Chiefs had plenty of time to prepare for Aaron Rodgers and Co. Green Bay (2-0) looks like clearly the best team in the NFC, and the Packers are going to run away with the North Division again. But might the Pack be flat here off a huge win last Sunday night against Seattle? I took the Packers and gave the points in that one, so that was a win. The Packers are now +425 Super Bowl favorites at 5dimes.

    Chiefs at Packers Betting Story Lines

    Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles is one of my favorite running backs in the NFL, and he’s one of the best. And in Week 2 against Denver, Charles had 21 rushes for 125 yards and a touchdown. However, he also lost two fumbles. The final one lost the game. Denver tied the score at 24 on a Peyton Manning 19-yard pass to Emmanuel Sanders with 36 seconds left. For some reason, the Chiefs opted to not throw or take a knee on their first down following the kickoff and touchback. Instead, they handed off to Charles, I suppose thinking maybe he breaks a big gain and then you try to throw to get into field-goal range. But Charles was stripped, and it was returned 21 yards by the Broncos’ Bradley Roby for the winning score. Just a stunner.

    So, what was Chiefs coach Andy Reid thinking? “So we were going to try to bust one and if we could get within a field-goal shot – you know, you get to the minus-40 or plus-40 – you have an opportunity for maybe a shot there. The way (Charles) was running, he was running great and I thought that was a good play. Didn’t work out so good.” Reid has been criticized for some clock management issues in the past. That was definitely not the right call.

    Green Bay got payback for choking away last season’s NFC title game in Seattle by beating the visiting Seahawks 27-17 in Week 2. Now there’s no way a possible title game rematch won’t be at Lambeau Field with the Packers already holding a two-game lead over Seattle and the tiebreaker. The Seahawks led this one 17-16 with under 10 minutes left before Aaron Rodgers hit Richard Rodgers on a 5-yard TD and then converted the 2-point try. Mason Crosby’s field goal with 1:56 left was the clincher.

    The Pack won that game despite losing No. 1 running back Eddie Lacy to a sprained right ankle on just his third carry. He wouldn’t return. James Starks filled in well, carrying 20 times for 95 yards. It’s still not clear if Lacy will play Monday, but having that extra day can only help.

    Last meeting between these teams was a 19-14 Chiefs home win on Dec. 18, 2011. I remember that game so well. Green Bay was 13-0, had won 19 straight games overall and was an 11-point favorite. Aaron Rodgers was 17-for-35 for 235 yards and a touchdown, and he ran 8 yards for another touchdown with 2:12 left in the game. But the Packers, who were without leading receiver Greg Jennings and leading rusher Starks due to injuries, were unable to recover the onside kick. Kyle Orton was the Chiefs’ QB then, and they were only 5-8 entering the game.

    Kansas City remains without cornerback Sean Smith, whose three-game suspension for substance abuse expires after this game.

    Chiefs at Packers Betting Odds and Trends

    The Packers are 7.5-point favorites (+120) with the total at 49. Green Bay is -310 on the moneyline and Kansas City +255. On the alternate lines, the Packers are -7 (+100) and -6.5 (-120). The Chiefs are 1-1 against the spread this season and 2-0 “over/under.” The Packers are 2-0 ATS and 1-1 O/U.

    Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its past five on Monday. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a loss. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a win. It is 1-4 ATS in its past five on Monday. The under is 5-1 in K.C.’s past six on Monday. It is 5-2 in its past seven on the road. The over is 8-2 in Green Bay’s past 10 in September. It is 7-3 in the Pack’s past 10 at home.

    Chiefs at Packers Betting Prediction

    This is the 50th game in Mike McCarthy’s 160-game coaching tenure in which the Packers are favored by a touchdown or more. McCarthy’s record of 40-9 as a prohibitive favorite includes 17 victories in the last 18 of those games. The Packers are 4-1 all-time under McCarthy at home on Monday nights.

    For Kansas City to have a chance, it has to pressure Rodgers. And the Chiefs are second in the NFL through Week 2 with eight sacks. But they are No. 23 against the pass, allowing 268.0 yards per game. And is this the game a Chiefs receiver finds the end zone? No Chiefs wide receiver has caught a TD pass since the 45-44 wild-card playoff defeat against Indianapolis on Jan. 4, 2014. I say yes.

    I have two projections here. At 6.5, I’d take Green Bay. But at 7.5, I’d go Kansas City. Go ‘over’ the total.

    #6020
    admin
    Keymaster

    Packers slumping ATS on Monday Night Football
    Andrew Avery

    The Green Bay Packers head into Monday Night’s date with the Kansas City Chiefs 2-0 both straight up and against the spread to begin the 2015 campaign, but the Packers have struggled to cash bet slips in recent Monday Night Football games.

    The Pack are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five Monday Night Football games, including losing their past three against the spread.

    This time around, Green Bay is pegged as a 6.5-point home favorite with Kansas City in town.

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