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Stephen Nover | NFL Side Sun, 11/01/15 – 8:30 PM
Double-Dime bet – 273 GBP -3.0 (-105) at Bet33 vs 274 DEN
Analysis
Both teams are 6-0 and off byes. The Packers’ 6-0 is real. The Broncos’ 6-0 is bogus.
Denver has had to battle in every one of its games. The Broncos ranked eighth in point differential despite not having lost.
The Broncos’ offense has produ‘ced only nine touchdowns. The problems are a below average offensive line, mediocre running backs and a washed-up Peyton Manning.Manning should have retired after last season. He ranks 31st in the passer ratings with a 72.5 ranking. He’s tied for the most interceptions thrown with 10. He’s as smart and savvy as ever, but he can no longer drive the ball and his accuracy is down. To be brutally honest, he’s one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league now. Sad, but true.
The Packers have a monster quarterback edge with Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy and Davonte Adams should be at full strength, too.
Denver’s home field and outstanding defense are definite pluses. However, they can’t outweigh Green Bay’s considerable offensive edge. Today’s game is about offense not defense. The rules ensure that. Manning can’t keep up with Rodgers.Norm Hitzger
DOUBLE PLAYS:
New Orleans -3 NY Giants
St. Louis -8 San FranciscoSINGLE PLAYS:
Seattle -6 Dallas
Minnesota +1 Chicago
Jets -3 Oakland
Denver +2 1/2 Green BayStatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
NFL | DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
Play Against – Favorites (KANSAS CITY) after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )NFL | CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
Play On – Any team vs the money line (CINCINNATI) after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse
36-23 since 1997. ( 61.0% | 0.0 units )NFL | CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
Play Under – Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%)
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )Amazing Wager Picks
Arizona -5
Atlanta -7
NY Jets -2.5
Minnesota +1
Cincinnati +1
Miami +8Denver / Green Bay – Under 45.5
Kansas City / Detroit – Under 45.5WUNDERDOG SPORTS
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (255) @ Atlanta Falcons (256)
Time: Sunday 11/01 1:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 49 (-110) at Bet33
The Atlanta Falcons offense looked invincible early on. The Matt Ryan to Julio Jones combo looked to be impossible to stop, as Jones caught 34 balls for 440 yards and four TDs in the first three games of the season. However, over the last four games, that combo has been slowed considerably with just 24 catches for 290 yards and a one TD. Those numbers have been cut just about in half, and so have the points produced by the Atlanta offense, down from 34.3 points per game in the first three to 187.7 ppg in the last four. Tampa Bay is coming off a pair of high-scoring games, but that will not be the norm for this team, although it lifted the total a few points, as the Buccaneers are 11-5 to the UNDER in their last 16 games. The Falcons enter having played to a 48-19-4 mark to the UNDER in their last 71 after allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Play on the UNDER in this one.PREDICTION MACHINE
AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $
274 8:30 PM @DEN ♦Upset Watch♦ vs GB 3 0.5 57.7% $56STRAIGHT-UP PICKS
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
274 8:30 PM @ DEN GB 21.4 21.0 50.5%OVER/UNDER PICKS
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $
274 8:30 PM GB @ DEN 45.5 42.4 Under 55.5% $33Philly Seal
$300 – Minnesota Vikings
$300 – Jets / Raiders – OVER 44
$300 – Seahawks / Cowboys – OVER 41
Jason Sample
GB Packers -2.5
Bears / Vikings – OVER 42.5 (2x)
Giants / Saints – UNDER 49
Colts +7 (-120)
Falcons -7
Bears +7 / Giants +10 / Browns +14 (+142) 7TR
Bears +7 / Giants +10 / Falcons -1 (+142) 7TR
Giants +10 / Browns +14 / Falcons -1 (+142) 7TR
Giants +10 / Falcons -1 / Packers +4.5 (+142) 7TRPoint Train’s NFL Best Bet – Sunday, November 1
8-Unit – #273 Green Bay (-3) over Denver – 7:30 PM CST
Maximum Football
NFL Over/Under Game of the Week – Nov. 1
3* #253/254 OVER 42 – Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears 12:00 PM CT
JOE GAVAZZI
NFL WEEK 8
ECONOMY CLUBNFL STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK …
Minnesota Vikings (+1-)
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-1-) 1:00 EST
First of all, I must apologize for last Sunday when our plan for a 6% selection on these Vikings was disrupted by news that star Vikings RB Peterson was suffering from an “undisclosed illness.” The later rumor was that he had swallowed chewing tobacco on the flight. I subsequently reduced the rating on the game to “only a 5%” then watched as Peterson played as if he was in full health, led the Vikings to an overland advantage against Detroit of 35/140 to 17/77, and the Vikings cruised to a 28-19 victory. That has lifted the Vikings’ recent run to 13-3 ATS. It is based on the fact that second year HC Zimmer is winning NFL games the old fashioned way, with a ground game averaging 30/128/4.3 and a defense allowing just 17 PPG. Look for them again to have their way, overland, against a Chicago Bear defensive front allowing 125/4.5. The Bears are rebuilding under first year HC Fox and DC Fangio. They do have the #10 yardage defense in the league at 345 YPG, but other indiscretions mean they are allowing 30 PPG, tied for the worst defensive number in the league. The Bears still carry the albatross that is QB Cutler, and negative point spread records that show them to be 6-14 ATS in divisional play recently, and 10-18 ATS as dog. Last time the Bears lined up they lost 37-34 to Detroit, affording the Lions their only victory of the season. Yes, that would be the same Lions team that Minnesota easily handled last week.NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK …
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7-)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7-) 1:00 EST
Atlanta could only squeeze out a 10-7 victory at Tennessee last week, but it was enough to keep the public entrenched on the side of a team who has made the NFL’s biggest improvement this season. A 6-10 SU team of last year has emerged with a 6-1 SU mark to open 2015. New HC Quinn is at the controls, with QB Ryan and RB Freeman authoring an offense that averages 28 PPG and 403 YPG. The public also may remember that it was on a Thursday night game last year that the Falcons led the Bucs 56-0. A few think the public are the only ones who remember that. Be assured that it is entrenched in the minds of all the players who were on each of these teams last season. Despite last week’s 31-30 defeat, the Bucs are likely to enter today’s game with some confidence. They outrushed Washington 30/190 to 19/50, and outgained them 479-355, in a 0 net turnover game. The Bucs actually led the contest 24-0 before succumbing to the inability to handle a big lead. It should not be lost on those analyzing this game that this year’s Tampa Bay OC Koetter held the same position for Atlanta in the three previous years. Yes, he will be in QB Ryan’s head. Bucs have already won as many games this season as last (2). Despite the 2-4 SU record, they are outrushing foes 364-328, and outgaining them 6.0 to 5.4 YP play. With a ground game that is at least the equal of the Falcons at 30/134, it will be little surprise to this bureau if the Bucs make a game of this, with the ability to steal one down the stretch. That would mean it was “lesson learned” from last week.NFL PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK … Denver Broncos (+3)
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Denver Broncos 8:30 EST
Apparently the public believes that the only two players on this field will be Green Bay QB Rodgers and Denver QB Manning. And with the help of ESPN and other media outlets, we all know what that perception is. Green Bay QB Rodgers is in his prime, completing 68% with a 15/2 ratio. Denver’s aging QB Manning is completing just 62% of his passes, with a 7/10 ratio. In addition, the public knows that Green Bay has outscored Denver by an average of 33-13 in their three previous meetings. Both teams are rested, a situation that has been a positive for each. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS following a bye, while the Broncos are 14-3 SU ATS home following a bye. Those perceptions aside, there are some very true realities in this game. First and foremost is that the Broncos are allowing a league low 17 PPG, 281 YPG, and only 4.5 YP play. It’s never easy to fade the #1 defense in the league when they are an underdog. Secondly, is the strong home field of the Broncos, which finds them to be 24-2 SU the last 3+ years since QB Manning has resurrected his career in the Mile High city. Yet the perception continues to dominate the betting line, leaving us with the Denver Broncos as a 3 point home dog, with an undefeated record on a strong home field with the best defense in the league. I guess we’ll just have to settle for that.
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