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Week 4 – Saturday Service Plays 9/26/15

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    Risked 3 units to win 2.73 BYU +5.5 -110 vs Michigan

    Risked 2 units to win 2.5 Missouri +125 vs Kentucky

    Risked 4 units to win 3.2 Florida -125 vs Tennessee U

    Risked 4 units to win 3.48 Texas Tech +7.5 -115 vs TCU

    Risked 5 units to win 4.55 Arizona U +4 -110 vs UCLA

    • This topic was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by admin.

    StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

    Play Against – Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MICHIGAN)
    with a good rushing D – allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
    46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

    Play On – A home team vs. the money line (S CAROLINA)
    in a game involving two terrible teams (outgained by 100+ YPG), after being outgained by 225 or more total yds in their previous game
    25-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )

    Play Against – Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (BUFFALO)
    mistake-free team – committing 1 or less turnovers/game
    41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

    Play Under – All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5
    off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins
    46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by admin.


    5* (357) Tennessee +1.5

    3* (394) Texas +3

    3* (311) Army +3

    2* (309) BYU +5.5

    2* (326) E Carolina +8.5



    Early Bird POW – Wisconsin -27

    Underdog – Missouri +3

    4* Power Play – Idaho +16

    Economy Club – Ohio St -31

    Big Dog POW – Ohio +10.5 +350

    Big 12 – Rutgers -14

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 2 months ago by admin.


    100* Arizona +160



    Bowling Green at Purdue
    There are many quarterback changes around the country in places where there are too many good choices, and several other situations where the HC might not have one good option. That appears to be the case for Purdue HC Darrell Hazell, who this week announced he is giving the job to redshirt freshman David Blough after several weeks where junior Austin Appleby was simply ineffective for the Boilermakers. This Saturday, they get a pretty stiff test as Bowling Green and their high powered offense visit West Lafayette. Hazell really had no choice as Appleby had thrown six picks in just three starts, including two that were taken to the house by the opposition. The Falcons are a team that scores lots of points and are led by QB Matt Johnson, who leads all FBS in both passing yards and touchdowns. This game opened with Purdue as a 2-point favorite (however, keep in mind this is before QB change was announced) and now sits with the Falcons as a 1.5-point favorite on the road. Make no mistake…this is seriously good offensive football team in Bowling Green! They sit at 1-2 on the season, but opened the season by scoring 30 points and gaining 557 yards against a pretty good Tennessee squad, and then followed that up with 48 and 41 points respectively in a win at Maryland and close loss this past weekend vs. Memphis. Purdue has been pretty weak defensively so far this season and this appears to be a very bad matchup for them. Bowling Green is an impressive 14-3 against the number in their last 17 road games vs. teams with a losing record and Purdue has been dead money for bettors, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. We think Purdue could score some points (depending on how effective Blough is) but we know BG is going to score some points and we don’t think the Boilers can keep up. We’re siding with the short-priced road favorite in this one. The Sharps say…

    3 Units – Bowling Green (-1.5)



    The Bobcats won for us two weeks ago against Marshall and they are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the number after another win last week. They are once again a very solid team as they have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and while conference play begins next week, they will be out for a quality win this week and we are getting an overabundance of points on top of it. Minnesota is a good team as it played TCU very tough in its opener but struggled to win against Colorado St. and really struggled last week against Kent St. at home as it defeated the Golden Flashes 10-7. The Gophers offense has been very inconsistent and this will not be an easy game to get it rolling. Ohio has eight starters back on a defense that improved from 2013 and should be much better this season which we are in fact witnessing. Minnesota has really struggled against non-conference teams the last couple years as it is 2-7 in its last nine non-conference games while being unable to come close to dominating the stats. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have covered five straight non-conference games.

    10* Play Ohio Bobcats

    Penn St. came into the season with high expectations but a loss against Temple was not the way to get started. The Nittany Lions bounced back with wins over Buffalo and Rutgers but the offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 21.7 ppg through three games. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg came in with even higher expectations as a Heisman hopeful and he has been struggling. He has thrown for 372 yards on just 49.3 percent completions while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times and overall Penn St. is ranked 115th out of 128 teams in total offense. The issue comes down to the offensive line which remains a mess. San Diego St. is not having a good year as it has also been struggling on offense and underachieving as well. The Aztecs lost a tough one at home last week against South Alabama as they allowed a 46-yard field goal at the end of regulation and ended up losing in overtime. They hit the road again and while playing on the east coast is not a good situation for west coast teams, the fact that this game is at 3:30 instead of noon is a big advantage. Additionally, the line is overinflated for a team to try and cover by nearly as many points as it is averaging. As for the angles that back the 100% Perfect Power Play, Penn St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win by 17 points or more while going 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game.

    10* Play (327) San Diego St. Aztecs

    Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons.

    10* Play (343) Vanderbilt Commodores

    Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number.

    10* Play (365) Massachusetts Minutemen

    California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less.

    10* Play (404) Washington Huskies






    5-Unit Play. Take the #363 LSU -24.5 over Syracuse (Saturday, September, 26 at 12:00 PM ET)

    Take LSU -24.5 as my CFB Game of the Week for Saturday

    This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and this is a lopsided match-up here Saturday. On paper Syracuse has one of the best run defenses in the country however that is because they have not been tested. Rhode Island, Wake Forest and Central Michigan have some of the worst running games in the country and that is how Syracuse has padded their stats. LSU is coming off back to back dominate performances with the exception of letting Miss State back into the game in the 4th quarter which actually cost us the cover 2 weeks ago. Other than that game LSU has taken care of business and they have a mobile QB which will also pose problems for this over-rated Syracuse defense. There is a huge talent level difference between these two teams and I would not be surprised to see a 34-40 point LSU win here Saturday as Cuse also has some key injuries to deal with. Play LSU -24.5 with confidence Saturday as they take care of business on the road. (Only way Syracuse keeps this game within 20 points is with turnovers and gimmick plays which I don’t see happening against this Les Miles team.)

    4-Unit Play. Take the #395-396 USC/Arizona State GAME TOTAL OVER 62 (Saturday, September, 26 at 10:30 PM ET)

    Take USC/Arizona State Over 62 as my 4-Unit CFB Smash for Saturday night. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and we have a match-up here that could very put this total well into the 70’s Saturday night. USC just allowed a bad offensive Stanford team to put up 41 points against them so I can only imagine the numbers Mike Bercovici will put up against them. USC has averaged 48.3 ppg this season and put up 31 last week against Stanford despite having the ball for just over 20 minutes of the game. 4 of the last 5 games played between these two teams have gone over the posted total and I expect a scoring explosion here Saturday night. Play the Over 62 with confidence Saturday night.




    4-Unit Play. Take #322 Houston -16 over Texas St (8:00p.m., Saturday September 26)

    6-Unit Play. Take #353 Over 74.5 Rice at Baylor (3:00p.m., Saturday September 26 FSN)

    3-Unit Play. Take #402 Arizona +3 over UCLA (9:00p.m., Saturday September 26 ABC)



    4-Unit Play. #365. Take Massachusetts +29.5 over Notre Dame

    3-Unit Play. #343. Take Vanderbilt +25 over Ole Mississippi

    5-Unit Play. #334. Take Ohio State -31.5 over Western Michigan


    Stephen Nover | CFB Side Sat, 09/26/15 – 3:30 PM

    Double-Dime bet – 365 Massachusetts 28.0 (-110) vs 366 Notre Dame

    This is a hu”ge letdown spot for Notre Dame. The Irish are coming off a gutty upset beating 14th-ranked Georgia Tech at home this past Saturday. The Irish have a much bigger game on deck playing at Clemson next week.

    So the Irish aren’t going to be too concerned about lowly UMasss. The Minutemen, though, are dangerous under Mark Whipple. They are dangerous on offense. They nearly beat Temple losing 25-23 last week. The unbeaten Owls could be the best team in the American Athletic Conference.

    UMass has covered seven of its last 10.

    Notre Dame has lost six players. The Irish are down their quarterback, Malik Zaire, their leader rusher from a year ago, Tarean Folston, and safety Drue Tranquill.

    These injuries have left the Irish inexperienced at quarterback and thin in the secondary. UMass is a throwing team ranking 19th in passing yards.

    Notre Dame has covered only once the past six times it has played a foe with a losing record.



    LOCK – [325] VaTech -8



    [313] Nevada +2

    [319] Missouri +2.5

    [329] Bowling Green (pk)

    [357] Tennessee +2

    [373] Miss St. +3.5

    [381] Akron +8.5

    Free play – [351] Florida Int +14.5




    *** Play up to 68.

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