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NFL Week 8 Essentials
By Tony MejiaIndianapolis at Carolina: While it’s looking increasingly likely that Chuck Pagano won’t be part of what the Colts do going forward, he’s still at the helm of the team most likely to come out of the NFL’s worst division. That makes this contest against undefeated Carolina very interesting. Andrew Luck simply hasn’t looked like himself and faces an elite secondary led by Josh Norman that has made a living changing game. Luke Kuechly made it back too, so the Colts will be facing the best defense they’ve seen all season.
Tech Trends – Week 8
By Bruce MarshallINDIANAPOLIS at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts 10-5 last 15 as reg.- season dog. Also “over” 11-5 last 16 reg season road games. Panthers 9-3-1 last 13 as home chalk. Also “under” 9-3 last 12 at Charlotte.Tech Edge: Slight to Colts and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NFL Football Betting Trends – Monday – Nov, 2
Indianapolis at Carolina, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 7-0 OVER off 2 consecutive home losses
Carolina: 66-45 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49Monday Night Football Betting Preview
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 46.5)
A pair of teams that have defied preseason predictions will square off on Monday night when the Carolina Panthers put their perfect record on the line against the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Not much was expected from the Panthers after losing No. 1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin for the season during training camp, but they entered Week 8 as one of five unbeaten teams in the league.
“We’re not satisfied with what we’ve done,” Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. “Is it good? Yes, but at the same time we’re still trying to conquer things that people said we couldn’t do, and surprising ourselves at the same time.” Conversely, the Colts were considered among the favorites to reach the Super Bowl behind quarterback Andrew Luck, but the former No. 1 overall pick has battled an injured shoulder and ineffectiveness in the team’s 3-4 start. Indianapolis has the good fortune to play in the weak AFC South and its only three victories have come at the expense of its division foes. The matchup with the Panthers kicks off a three-game stretch in which the Colts will face opponents with an combined 18-1 mark entering the weekend.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE HISTORY:
Books opened the Panthers as 6.5-point home faves. The total is up to 46.5 from the opening 45.
INJURY REPORT:
Colts – S Clayton Geathers (Probable, knee), S Mike Adams (Probable, hamstring), LB Nate Irving (Questionable, knee), S Winston Guy (Questionable, shoulder), C Khaled Holmes (Questionable, undisclosed), RB Josh Robinson (Questionable, undisclosed), WR Phillip Dorsett (Mid Dec, ankle), RB Tyler Varga (I-R, concussion), CB D’Joun Smith (I-R, knee), DT Arthur Jones (I-R, ankle), CB Tevin Mitchel (I-R, shoulder).
Panthers – LB Thomas Davis (Probable, undisclosed), T Mike Remmers (Questionable, elbow), FB Mike Tolbert (Questionable, personal), C Ryan Kalil (Questionable, ankle), T Daryl Williams (Questionable, knee), LB Shaq Thompson (Doubtful, knee), DT Dwan Edwards (Out, ankle), DE Mario Addison (Out, shoulder), DE Frank Alexander (Out for season, Achilles), TE Richie Brockel (I-R, hamstring), DE Charles Johnson (I-R, hamstring), T Nate Chandler (I-R, knee), DE Arthur Miley (I-R, knee), WR Kelvin Benjamin (I-R, knee).
WEATHER:
A 96 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the the high-50s and wind blowing across the field at around 6 mph.
POWER RANKINGS:
Colts (+0.5) + Panthers (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -7.5
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Andrew Luck didn’t complete a single pass for the first 20 minutes against the Saints and two of his three late TD passes came when the opposing cornerback fell down. Carolina finished -2 in turnover margin and ran 23 fewer plays than Philadelphia; getting gashed on the ground on Sunday Night, yet they still came away with the win and cover.” Teddy Covers.
ABOUT THE COLTS (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 O/U): After having its three-game winning streak snapped in a home loss to the New England Patriots, Indianapolis turned in a clunker last week, falling behind by 27 points to visiting New Orleans before a belated rally came up short in a 27-21 setback. Luck tossed three scoring passes for the second game in a row, but he was also intercepted twice to mark the fourth time in his five starts he has thrown multiple picks. The Colts rank last in the league, allowing an average of 408.6 yards, and were gashed for 183 rushing yards by New Orleans.
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS, 3-2-1 O/U): Much has been made about the relative lack of strength of Carolina’s schedule, but the Panthers are coming off a pair of impressive victories, rallying from nine points down in the fourth quarter at Seattle before knocking off visiting Philadelphia 27-16 last week. A patchwork corps of wide receivers has contributed to a career-low 55.8 completion percentage for Newton, who has run for four TDs to help spark the league’s top-ranked ground game (144.7 yards). The Panthers are yielding 18.3 points while ranking eight in sacks and passing yards allowed.
TRENDS:
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 6-2-1 in Panthers last nine home games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent are backing the Panthers.
ALLEN EASTMAN
5-Unit Play. Take #276 Carolina (-6.5) over Indianapolis (8:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 2)
Last week I cashed an easy NFL 411 Play on the Panthers in a blowout win over Philadelphia.
My NFL 411 System didn’t produce this play this week. But I am still betting the Panthers again here and I think that this will be another blowout. The Colts are reeling right now. Andrew Luck is not healthy and not playing well. The Colts have the No. 32 defense in the NFL. There have been fights between the owner and GM and rumors that the coach is going to be fired. This whole organization is a mess right now. Carolina is the opposite. This team is undefeated and playing great football. They are riding high after that Sunday night win and now I think that the Panthers are going to be really excited for this Monday Night Football game in front of the home crowd. The Panthers are No. 6 in points per game and No. 6 in points allowed per game. They are getting it done on both sides of the ball. The Colts will not be strong enough to stop Carolina’s running game. And the Panthers defense will feed off the crowd and shut down this weak Colts offense. I have this one at 31-13 for the home team. Lay the points.
4-1 yesterday.
ALAN HARRIS
3 Unit Play. Take #275/276 Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers Over 46.5 (8:30 PM, Monday, November 2, ESPN)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Monday night when the Indianapolis Colts travel to take on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. The Colts have posted a 7-1 record to the over in their last eight games played in the month of November and they have gone 5-2 to the over in their last seven games on the road versus a team with a winning record. The Panthers have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here as they have posted a 3-1-1 record to the over in their last five games following a straight up win and they have gone over the total in four straight games versus a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the Colts have gone 13-6 to the over in their last 19 road games and that’s where we’ll have our play in a game where we think the Panthers will run the ball at will and Andrew Luck and the Colts will finally get their offense back on track in a nationally televised game Monday night.
MNF – Colts at Panthers
By Kevin RogersThe Panthers look to remain as the only undefeated team in the NFC with a victory over the Colts on Monday night. Carolina attempts for its first 7-0 start in franchise history while trying to stretch out its slim advantage over Atlanta inside the NFC South. On the other side, Indianapolis looks to stay atop the AFC South, as a win by the Colts would actually get them to the .500 mark.
Prior to last season, there had never been a repeat champion in the NFC South since realignment back in 2002. Carolina broke through by claiming consecutive division titles in 2013 and 2014, in spite of a 7-8-1 record last season. Now, the Panthers are one win away from equaling that mark at the start of November, as Ron Rivera’s club held off the Eagles last Sunday night, 27-16 to cash as three-point home favorites. In spite of Cam Newton getting intercepted three times, the Panthers rushed for 204 yards and picked up their first home victory of at least 10 points in three tries this season.
The Colts haven’t had much luck against teams outside the AFC South, posting an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record. The latest loss came at home to the Saints last week, 27-21 as 5 ½-point favorites, falling behind 27-0 before putting up several late scores. Andrew Luck threw for over 300 yards for the second straight week since week since missing two games with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis has lost four of five times with Luck at quarterback, while coincidentally posting a 2-0 record with Matt Hasselbeck under center.
Carolina has covered five of six times this season, with the lone ATS loss coming in a 27-22 home victory over New Orleans in Week 3 as a 10-point favorite. The Panthers have taken care of their business against the dreadful AFC South, beating the Jaguars and Texans, which is in stark contrast to last season’s 1-2-1 record in interconference play, with the only victory coming against the Browns.
The Colts have cashed in both opportunities in the underdog role this season against Tennessee and New England, while going 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Since 2013, Indianapolis has posted a 7-6 ATS record in the underdog role, including a 1-2 SU/ATS mark against the NFC, as the Colts were dominated by the Cowboys last December, 42-7 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.
The Panthers and Colts are meeting for the sixth time ever on Monday, as Carolina won at Indianapolis in the last matchup, 27-19 in 2011 as 3 ½-point favorites. This contest took place one year before the Colts drafted Luck, as Newton threw for 208 yards and rushed for a touchdown. Indianapolis finished that season at 2-14, so the Panthers winning as road favorites was expected in the transition year with Peyton Manning sidelined due to a neck injury. The Colts are making their first trip to Charlotte since 2007, as Indianapolis manhandled Carolina, 31-7 as seven-point favorites.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson is weary of Carolina’s strong start due to its opponents, “After a 4-0 start against teams that looked headed for tough seasons there was good reason to be suspicious of a Panthers team that had not exactly dominated its games vs. what looked like a weak schedule. A great comeback win in Seattle and a convincing Sunday night win over the Eagles provided more legitimacy to the perfect start for Carolina and more will be found out about this team the next two weeks. The Panthers still don’t have a win against a team with a winning record this season and while they won’t get that chance this week hosting the Colts, they have a huge NFC clash next Sunday hosting the Packers in what could be a matchup of 8-0 teams.”
Nelson points out that the Colts will be tested the next two weeks with contests against the Broncos and Falcons, but Indianapolis’ offense needs all the points it can get against a solid Carolina defense, “The Colts will need a strong performance against a Panthers defense that is sixth in the league in scoring defense allowing just over 18 points per game, but this remains a Panthers offense that is limited, 22nd in the league in total offense and the fourth-least productive passing offense in the league with the main defensive vulnerabilities for the Colts appearing to be against the passing game. Bank of America Stadium has provided a solid home field edge for the Panthers who are 15-6 S/U and 13-7-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2013 season under Rivera, who not so long ago seemed to be in Chuck Pagano’s position as a coach whose job was consistently rumored to be in jeopardy.”
Underdogs continue to perform well on Monday nights this season, compiling a 6-2 ATS record after the Ravens cashed as 10-point ‘dogs last week in a 26-18 setback at Arizona. Even more impressive is the 7-1 mark to the ‘under’ in these eight primetime contests, as six of those games have seen a combined 44 points or fewer scored. Since Newton arrived with the Panthers in 2011, Carolina is 2-1 SU/ATS on Monday night, including an exciting 24-20 home victory over New England two years ago. Luck owns a 1-2 SU/ATS record on Mondays with the lone win coming against the Giants last season as a short favorite.
The Colts have cashed the ‘under’ in four of seven games, including a 2-1 mark to the ‘under’ away from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Panthers have faced four of the league’s worst eight defenses so far, while Indianapolis has allowed the most yards per game in the NFL at 408 ypg. Carolina is 3-2-1 to the ‘over’ this season, but owns a 6-2-1 mark to the ‘under’ in the past nine contests at Bank of America Stadium.
The Panthers are currently listed as 6 ½-point favorites at most books, while the total is set at 46 ½. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from Charlotte and can be seen on ESPN.
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