- This topic has 147 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 7 years, 4 months ago by
. This post has been viewed 5352 times
- Posts
JOE GAVAZZI
STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK!
New Mexico +8New Mexico at San Jose St. (-8) 7:00 ET
New Mexico travels to San Jose to face the Spartans in this battle for Mt. West Conference supremacy. It is not often that we get to use an underdog selection as our STEAMROLLER OF THE WEEK. But, as you will see by the numbers below, the play is well warranted. Last week, San Jose was badly beaten on this field by San Diego St. The Spartans lost (30-7) being outrushed 234-36. San Jose St. has outrushed lined opposition only once this season in their dominating win against Fresno. When they had been double-rushed against Air Force, Oregon St. and San Diego St., San Jose has gone 0-3 ATS for their only spread losses.This in spite of the fact that the Spartans own a premier back in RB Ervin (ran for 300 yards in the Fresno game). Last week, against the Aztecs’ defensive front, Ervin was held to just 22 yards. Though I expect him to do some business against a New Mexico defense allowing 194/4.5, it is when New Mexico has the ball that the greatest overland success will occur. Under 3rd year HC Caragher, the Spartans’ defensive front has been a sieve. In the previous 2 years, they allowed 214/5.2 in 2013 and 239/5.4 in 2014. This year, the Spartans are once again being burned at the point of attack for 228/5.1. That fits perfectly against a New Mexico option attack which is averaging 258/5.2.
Of equal importance is the fact that the Lobos are learning how to win games. In each of the last 2 home games against New Mexico St. and Hawaii, the Lobos trailed at halftime only to rally for a big 2nd half to win the game. That puts them at 4-3 SU for the year, 2-1 SU in the league and gives them a fighting chance with this victory to get to the vaunted 6 win mark for the season. No surprise to this bureau if New Mexico controls the line of scrimmage and STEAMROLLS their way to pointspread victory in a game that could well go down to the final possession.
BIG DOG —- Western Kentucky +16.5
Reality —– Duke +2
Sports Insights
NCAAF Best Bets 33-39 -8.76 units
Game Time (ET) Play Best Line
10/22 9:00 PM 309 Play on CAL Over 70-110 (*L*)
10/24 3:00 PM 318 Play on BALL Under 56.5-108
10/24 12:00 PM 326 Play on SYR Under 49.5-108
10/24 3:30 PM 328 Play on MI-ST Under 62.5-110
10/24 7:30 PM 346 Play on USC -3.5-108
10/24 5:00 PM 363 Play on UL-MON -1-108
10/24 4:00 PM 384 Play on USF -11.5-110
10/24 6:00 PM 387 Play on ODU 13-104
10/24 12:00 PM 392 Play on ARK -6-108
Philly Seal
[319] TOTAL OVER 62-105 (TOLEDO vrs MASSACHUSETTS $300
[375] TOTAL OVER 60-105 (SO MISSISSIPPI vrs CHARLOTTE) $400
DAVE COKIN
Duke +2.5
Colorado +3
Nevada -7
free play – South Alabama +3.5
Week #8 College Wise Guy Report
Here’s the rundown on games getting sharp action this week in college football. Info is garnered from a variety of sources in Nevada as well as at various outlets stateside and offshore. These are not my opinions, just info to be utilized however you wish.
306 Appalachian State has been somewhat popular with both the Pros and the Joes.
320 UMass has drawn some sharp play this week, while the public is bombing the favorite.
346 USC is getting some wise guy action. This looks like a sharp/square battleground game where the public actually prefers the dog, which is usually not the case.
350 Alabama is quietly drawing some pro action. Not a huge play, but the smart guys definitely seem to be liking that side right now.
354 Ole Miss is now proving attractive to the sharps, and the Rebels drew some substantial dollars on Wednesday.
367 Colorado has been the sharp side as the Buffaloes make the trip to Oregon State.
372 Maryland is on the sharp list, which seems to be surprising to the books I talked with.
377 Boston College is back on the wise guy list, not the first time the Eagles have been attractive as dogs to the smarts.
Shorter than usual list this week, as the action has been a bit more of a trickle than a flood. I’ll try to update in the next 24 hours if that changes.
EAGLE EYE SPORTS — RANDY ROSE
Ball State +7.5 (-110)
Hawaii +7 (-110)
Kentucky +11.5 (-110)
*Risking: 5.00 Unit(s) (All Plays)
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
CFB | NORTH TEXAS at MARSHALL
Play Against – A road team (NORTH TEXAS) with a poor rushing D – allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )CFB | DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH
Play On – Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DUKE) off 1 or more consecutive unders, quick starting offensive team – scoring 16+ PPG in the first half
57-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 0.0 units )
0-4 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )CFB | NORTH TEXAS at MARSHALL
Play Over – Any team vs the the 1rst half total pathetic team – outscored by opponents by 17 or more points/game, after trailing their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half
89-45 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )WUNDERDOG SPORTS
Game: Clemson Tigers (329) @ Miami Florida Hurricanes (330)
Time: Saturday 10/24 12:00 PM Eastern
Pick: Game Total UNDER 56 (-110) at Bet33.com
Clemson comes into this game at 6-0, and in two weeks will likely face a Florida State team that will be a survival game in a quest to make the Final Four. What Clemson hangs their hat on every game is a top and elite-level defense. The Tigers are allowing a very stingy 4.4 yards per play vs. teams that average 6.1 yards per play, and in the process, they are defending only 64 plays a game on average. Clemson still hasn’t arrived as a complete team, but they do have an improving, and somewhat above average offense. However, turnovers keep inhibiting their growth, as Clemson has put the ball on the ground 13 times this season and has yet to play a clean game. Miami has only turned the ball over twice, but I would expect that to change here with a physical, fast, and ball-hawking Clemson defense. The problem for Miami is that they have not been able to run the ball, so they accumulate a lot of yards in the air, and seem to be getting stalled inside the 20 yard line when things get tighter. The Tigers have played to a 10-2 mark in their last 12 to the UNDER after allowing fewer than 20 points in their previous game, and have been a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER in their last eight vs. a winning team. Take the UNDER.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.