- September 2, 2015 at 9:35 pm #2095
Lions struggling ATS on the road this year
The BC Lions head into the Week 11 schedule with a 1-3 record against the spread in their four road games this season and have gone just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games dating back to last season.
The Lions will visit the Montreal Alouettes Thursday evening and are currently tabbed as 5-point road underdogs for the meeting.
BC is coming off a bye week but lost to the Als in Week 9 by a score of 23-13 and closed as 3-point faves.September 2, 2015 at 9:37 pm #2096
CFL Betting Notes – Week 11
By David Schwab
The second half of the 2015 CFL regular season starts this week and it features a special Labor Day double header as the official push towards the Grey Cup Playoffs gets underway.
The first half of the season closed things out with Montreal’s stunning 26-23 upset of Hamilton last Thursday as a heavy 11 ½-point road underdog. Edmonton improved to 6-3 straight-up with its 38-15 victory against Toronto on Friday as a seven-point home favorite.
Saturday’s CFL action saw Calgary hammer Winnipeg 36-8 as a six-point road favorite and Week 10 wrapped-up on Sunday with Ottawa keeping Saskatchewan winless on the season with a 35-13 victory as a three-point favorite at home.
Thursday, Sept. 3
British Columbia (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -5
Total: 47 ½
British Columbia returns to action this week after its bye and it will be looking to snap a two-game skid both straight-up and against the spread. The Lions have actually failed to cover in four of its last five games behind a porous defense that has allowed an average of 30.2 points during this same stretch. The total has gone OVER in three of the five games.
The Alouettes are right back in the hunt in the East Division following last Thursday’s upset of the first-place Tiger-Cats. Quarterback Rakeem Cato was knocked out of the game on a hard hit in the third quarter and he was replaced by Tanner Marsh, who has also been limited this season with a knee injury. Marsh completed 11-of-18 passes for 99 yards and he added 18 yards and a score on the ground.
BC has failed to cover in its last four road games against Montreal and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings overall. These two met on Aug. 20 with the Alouettes coming away with a 23-13 victory as three-point road underdogs.
Sunday, Sept. 6
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-9 SU, 2-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3 ½
Winnipeg’s lopsided loss to Calgary last week was its third straight both SU and ATS after a 3-3 SU (3-2-1 ATS) start. With Drew Willy still out of the lineup due to injury, the Blue Bombers turned to Robert Marve as their quarterback. He went on to complete 12-of-20 passes against the Stampeders for 94 yards. He was also picked-off twice in that game.
The Roughriders are still looking for their first SU win of the year in the first of this home-and-home series against West Division rival Winnipeg. In the loss to Ottawa they turned to Tino Sunseri at quarterback for an ineffective Brett Smith to try and add a spark. Sunseri did go on to complete 12-of-18 passes for 165 yards, but he could not get his team into the end zone.
The Blue Bombers have a slight 3-2 edge ATS in the last five meetings including a 30-26 victory as six-point road underdogs to start this season. The total has gone OVER in the last three games between these two.
Monday, Sept. 7
Toronto Argonauts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7
Total: 54 ½
Last Friday’s loss was the first time that Toronto failed to cover in its last five road games, but it comes into this matchup with a 1-6 record ATS in its last seven East Division games. The Argonauts generated less than 250 yards of total offense against Edmonton last week including just 40 yards on the ground. They are still tied for third in the CFL in scoring with an average of 26.4 points a game.
Hamilton’s stunning loss last week snapped a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of its last seven games. This was another team that had issues moving the ball on the ground its last time out with a total of just 29 rushing yards against Montreal. Zach Collaros did complete 20-of-27 attempts for 293 yards in the loss.
The Tiger-Cats come into the first game of this home-and-home series with a 6-1 record ATS in the last seven meetings. In early August they hammered Toronto 34-18 as 3 ½-point favorites at home. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven meetings.
Edmonton Eskimos (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (7-2 SU, 2-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5 ½
Total: 49 ½
Edmonton got a big effort from quarterback James Franklin in its win against Toronto. He completed 29-of-38 attempts for 335 yards and a score and he also led the team in rushing with 51 yards and a touchdown on four carries. The Eskimos are now averaging 26.4 points a game on offense while holding opposing teams to just 18.3 points, which is tops in the league.
The Stampeders come into this home-and-home series with a SU four-game winning streak, but last Saturday’s win was just the second time they have covered a spread this year in nine-straight games closing as favorites. Bo Levi Mitchell also had a big day throwing the ball with 314 yards passing and two touchdowns while completing 73 percent of his 26 attempts.
This will be the first meeting this season between these two division rivals and Calgary comes in with a perfect 6-0 record ATS in the last six games. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games played in Calgary.September 2, 2015 at 10:00 pm #2100
PGA Tour Picks: Deutsche Bank Championship Odds and Expert Predictions
by Alan Matthews
How great is it to be a golf fan these days? Sure, it was incredibly entertaining to see Tiger Woods in his prime, but he pretty much was destroying the field. He never had a true rivalry — no, I don’t think Phil Mickelson really was one. They rarely contended together in big-time tournaments.
But now we are looking at a 20-something threesome of Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Jason Day battling it out for likely the next decade. Last week at the FedEx Cup playoff-opening Barclays event in New Jersey, I didn’t expect much of Day after his very emotional win at the PGA Championship for his first major title. I was wrong.
It’s so rare to win your first tournament after a major, but Day was spectacular last week by finishing at 19-under 261, six shots clear of the field. All Day did on the weekend was shoot 63-62. It’s his third win (third!) since barely missing out on the playoff at the British Open. Day also took over the FedEx Cup points lead from Spieth. Day’s last 20 rounds on Tour have been at par or better, second only to a 21-round streak Patrick Reed had early in the year.
Day’s fourth title this season matches Spieth for the most, and he’s making a late push for PGA Tour Player of the Year, although I don’t see how Spieth doesn’t win that even if Day wins the FedEx Cup. Henrik Stenson finished second to Day at the Barclays and Bubba Watson third. McIlroy didn’t play but still regained the No. 1 world ranking because Spieth shockingly missed the cut. Either Spieth or Day could take the No. 1 this week — Day has never had it. If Day wins and McIlroy and Spieth each finish lower than second place, Day would become the 19th player since the world ranking’s inception in 1986 to ascend to that honor.
Due to an error on my part, I wrote by Barclays preview as usual on Tuesday last week but forgot to send it in until after Round 1. The only Top-10 result I hit on was Dustin Johnson at even money. Spieth I liked too at -200. I went with Matt Kuchar to win, but he was T39. After Round 1, I liked Camilo Villegas following his 65, but he didn’t break 70 again and finished T30. So I’m ready to move on from the Barclays!
So the Top 100 in points, down from Top 125, move on to the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston this week. This is one of just two events on Tour each year with a Friday-Monday schedule thanks to the Labor Day holiday. Then next week the playoffs take a break. Two guys who just missed out on being in the Top 100 on Sunday were Nick Taylor and Stewart Cink, who finished Nos. 101 & 102. Taylor missed a 7-foot-birdie putt on his 72nd hole or would have made it. Ditto Cink, who missed a 14-foot par. Villegas made a 9-footer for par on his final hole to get to No. 99.
Seven other players moved into the Top 100 from outside it: Zac Blair (from No. 106 to No. 45), Spencer Levin (115 to 80), Jason Dufner (103 to 82), Carlos Ortiz (112 to 83), Mark Wilson (114 to 85), Luke Donald (119 to 87) and Johnson Wagner (101 to 92). The current bubble boy is Jason Kokrak. The Top 70 advance to the BMW Championship. Boo Weekley is currently 70th. All but one of the Top 100 are supposed to play in Boston except for Sergio Garcia, who also sat out the Barclays. But Sergio already has officially advanced.
The defending champion is Chris Kirk. He played his final 37 holes without a bogey and finished with a 5-under 66 in the final round for a two-shot victory. Kirk was a whopping 10 shots out of the lead after his Friday round. Billy Horschel tied for second with 54-hole leader Russell Henley and Geoff Ogilvy. Kirk is +12500 to repeat at Bovada.
Golf Odds: Deutsche Bank Championship Favorites
Day is the +600 favorite . Since the British Open, Day has made 99 birdies and is a crazy 73-under-par. Next best is Justin Rose at 49-under. That’s stupid. If you are wondering, five players have won consecutive playoff events all time. Day has three Top-10s at this tournament with a T7 last year.
Spieth and McIlroy are +750. Last week was only Spieth’s third missed cut of the season. Last time was at the Players Championship and he was T2 in his next start at Colonial. Spieth has played this tournament twice, a T29 last year and fourth in 2013. McIlroy plays for just the second time in a competitive event since June because of that ankle injury. He was 17th at the PGA Championship and fifth here last year. He won the event in 2012.
Stenson (+1400) and Rose (+1600) round out the favorites. The Swede obviously played well last week with the runner-up and won here in 2013. Rose was T16 last week and had the same result here in 2014.
PGA Tour Picks: Deutsche Bank Championship Expert Predictions
For a Top 10, I like Day at -200, Spieth at -150, Stenson at +130 and Bill Haas at +600. Haas usually plays well at TPC Boston. Head-to-head, I’ll go with Spieth at -105 over Day (-125), Rickie Fowler (-115) over Zach Johnson (-115), Brooks Koepka (-115) over Jim Furyk (-115), Stenson (-125) over Rose (-105), and Phil Mickelson (-125) over Justin Thomas (-105). Lefty is only 52nd in points, so he better not miss the cut or he might be in jeopardy of not moving on.
I’m taking a shot on Ian Poulter at +700 as top Englishman. He is 69th in points, so I’m sure will be aggressive. High-risk, high-reward. I like Stenson at +300 as top European and Day at -125 as top rest of the world. Stenson is my winner — he’s peaking right now and torched this layout two years ago.September 2, 2015 at 10:02 pm #2101
See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:
The Houston Cougars are one of the many teams ushering in a new era by swapping out head coaches, dropping Tony Levine back in December and hiring former Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman. The Cougars are hoping to get back to their high-scoring ways, but with the season opener less than a week away they are still on the fence about who will be their starting quarterback.
Herman will use Week 1’s matchup with FCS Tennessee Tech as a tuneup game before clashing with AAC heavyweight Louisville in Week 2. Oddsmakers have Houston as a monstrous 37-point favorite against the Golden Eagles, and with the Cougars ironing out the wrinkles and planning ahead for the Cardinals, we see a potential letdown spot, especially when laying that many points.
The Boston Red Sox have very little to play for in September. Boston is at the bottom of the American League East and has burned through almost 13 units on the year. The Red Sox, however, will take pleasure in the little things, like spoiling the New York Yankees’ postseason push.
These classic rivals opened a three-game set Monday, with Boston taking a 4-3 win. They host the Pinstripes two more times – Tuesday and Wednesday – before making and huge switch in gears and intensity when the lowly Philadelphia Phillies come to Fenway for a weekend interleague set. Boston is ripe for a letdown following the Yankees with the basement-dwelling Phillies on deck Friday.
When you only have a handful of teams in the league, you’re bound to come across some funny schedule quirks. That’s the case in the CFL this week, with the Labor Day long weekend featuring the all-Alberta showdown between the Edmonton Eskimos and Calgary Stampeders at McMahon Stadium Monday afternoon.
These heated rivals do it all again five days later when the Stamps come to Commonwealth Stadium to play the Eskies Saturday. This back-to-back schedule set is the norm for Calgary and Edmonton, as has become the Stampeders’ dominance over the Eskimos during this two-game span. Calgary is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in the Labor Day Classic and following meeting the next week since 2009.September 2, 2015 at 10:03 pm #2102
NCAAF Line Watch: Grab Arizona State’s spread now
By Steve Merril
Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now: Arizona State +3 (vs. Texas A&M)
There hasn’t been any movement on this game as of yet; Texas A&M opened -3 and that’s where the line currently sits. But I expect money to show on Arizona State in this game, so taking the Sun Devils at +3 now may be a prudent move to make.
My raw power ratings actually rate Arizona State slightly higher than Texas A&M, and I don’t think the Aggies should be given more than a point or two for home field since this game will be played in Houston. That means there is value on Arizona State based on my numbers, and since I think the two teams are basically even after adjusting for location, grab the +3 now on the Sun Devils before the line drops.
Spread to wait on: Bowling Green +20.5 (vs. Tennessee)
Tennessee opened as 21-point favorites over Bowling Green, and a little early money has nudged the line down to -20.5 in favor of the Volunteers. However, I expect money to come in on Tennessee from the public bettors closer to kickoff.
Bowling Green returns 10 starters from a fantastic offense that averaged 30 points per game on 433 yards of offense last season. The Falcons can score points, so that makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range. This game will be played in Nashville, and that lessens Tennessee’s home field advantage. Wait and take Bowling Green +21 or more in this game.
Total to watch: Wisconsin/Alabama 50
Wisconsin and Alabama are both similar teams in that they are heavily reliant on running the football and playing excellent defense to win. The total opened around 53.5, and it was quickly bet down to the current number of 50 which is fully understandable.
There are some major question marks on both teams coming into this game. Alabama is young and inexperienced (10 returning starters), but they are obviously super talented. Wisconsin has a new coach in Paul Chryst, and he only has 11 returning starters to work with. The Badgers also have offensive line concerns which will limit their scoring production. This game should be low-scoring, and there’s still value on the Under at the current number.September 2, 2015 at 10:05 pm #2103
Game of the Day: Michigan at Utah
Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-4.5, 46.5)
Expectations are modest in head coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season, but Michigan expects a gradual return to greatness with the mercurial former quarterback at the helm. Harbaugh will get his first chance to lead his alma mater when the Wolverines visit Utah to open the 2015 campaign on Thursday.
Harbaugh was lured back from the NFL after leading the San Francisco 49ers to three NFC Championship games and is expected to do for Michigan what he did for Stanford – mold the team into a consistent Rose Bowl contender. Harbaugh has yet to officially announce his starting quarterback, though transfer Jake Rudock is the presumed favorite to win the job. Utah went into Michigan and put a 26-10 beating on the Wolverines last season and will be motivated to do the same after the noted football gurus at Popular Mechanics magazine caused a mini controversy by referring to the opener as a “cupcake game” for Michigan. The Utes begin the campaign outside the top-25 and are predicted to finish fifth in the Pac-12 South after losing some talent to the NFL, most notably linebacker Nate Orchard.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1. LINE: Utah -5.5
LINE HISTORY: The Utes opened as 5.5-point home favorites, but that is now -4.5. The total opened at 46.5.
INJURY REPORT: Michigan – WR Amara Darboh (Probable, finger), RB Drake Johnson (Questionable, knee).
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with wind blowing toward the north end zone at around 18 mph.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: “For the spread we are fairly split with the public bettors mostly backing Michigan and the sharper ones on Utah. The sharps liked Utah weeks ago but now we’re seeing the mainstream guys come in and they’re loving Harbaugh. More than two-thirds of our moneyline wagers are on the Wolverines. I think the smart play is the under and so do many of our professional clients.” Odds consultant from BookMaker.eu.
ABOUT MICHIGAN (2014: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Rudock or anyone else stepping under center for the Wolverines will need some help from the running attack in the opener, and the team is still waiting to see if Drake Johnson is ready to go after suffering a torn ACL against Ohio State last fall. “Drake is cleared, practicing and haven’t decided whether he’s going to play in this ballgame yet or not,” Harbaugh told reporters. “He’s doing a fantastic job. He’s in practice and an explosive football player.” Johnson did not get a carry against Utah last season but came alive down the stretch and ended up averaging six yards per carry.
ABOUT UTAH (2014: 9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS, 4-8-1 O/U): The Utes are going with senior Travis Wilson, who is beginning his fourth season as the starting quarterback in coach Kyle Whittingham’s high-scoring attack. Wilson threw for 18 touchdowns and ran for five more in 2014 and will again lean hard on running back Devontae Booker, who is coming off a 1,512-yard, 10-TD campaign. “Devontae Booker will carry the ball as many times as it takes to get a win,” Whittingham told reporters.
* Wolverines are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Pac-12.
* Utes are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten.
* Under is 7-3 in Utes last 10 home games.
* Utes are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent are backing the Wolverines.September 3, 2015 at 8:41 am #2114
StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
WNBA | TULSA at SEATTLE
Play Under – Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points off 2 or more consecutive home wins, with a winning record on the season
78-38 since 1997. ( 67.2% | 36.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
WNBA | CHICAGO at NEW YORK
Play On – Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) excellent free throw shooting team – making >=80% of their free throws, on Thursday nights
96-60 since 1997. ( 61.5% | 0.0 units )
8-4 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | CHICAGO at NEW YORK
Play Under – Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after having won 4 of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
127-70 since 1997. ( 64.5% | 50.0 units )
8-7 this year. ( 53.3% | 0.3 units )September 3, 2015 at 9:00 am #2121
Chicago Sky +7.5 over New York Liberty
(System Record: 25-2, lost last game)
Overall Record: 25-26-4September 3, 2015 at 9:01 am #2122
CRUSHER for 9/3
Quilmes + Estudiantes LP – UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 810-26, won last game)
Overall Record: 810-659-125September 3, 2015 at 9:02 am #2123
Here are the rest of his basketball plays for today…
Seattle Storm + Tulsa Shock – OVER 148September 3, 2015 at 12:05 pm #2152
SIMON – “SOCCER GUY”
EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP (OVER 2.5 +105) CROATIA @ AZERBAIJAN (3PM)
EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP (OVER 2 -119) NORWAY @ BULGARIA (2PM)September 3, 2015 at 1:23 pm #2158
indian cowboy – wnba
4*) ny -7.5
5*) tul/sea – over 148.5
5*) wsh/la – under 141.5
September 3, 2015 at 1:34 pm #2161
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SARATOGA #3 at 02:10 PM Eastern
Top Pick: #6 (ANNIE WALKER) (3-1) – Well bred filly has proven one of the few horses that haven’t improved after being claimed by trainer Dave Jacobson. Following six straight defeats facing tougher, he drops her under the $25K price he claimed her for this past April. She draws a nice outside post for this trip and leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard.
2nd Pick: #1 (She’s Marvy) (5-1) – Speedy 3-year-old is racing first off a Gary Gullo claim and a subsequent two month freshening. Capable with her best if ready, and she draws the rail. Apprentice Eric Cancel is aboard and the youngster has impressed here with 15 victories at this ultra competitive meet.
3rd Pick: #4 (Saluda) (4-1) – Normally sharp barn (Michelle Nevin) has had a terrible meet (0 for 32). She’s freshened this speed/stalker up since July 17 when filly finished a wide and even third at Belmont facing tougher. Daughter of ‘Congaree’ has never raced this low and is a win candidate.
4th Pick: #2 (Cryptic Comet) (12-1) – Long shot was a winner here at this tag and trip Aug 3 as she cleared the 2l condition. The figure earned was low and believe that a minor award is her ceiling.
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